MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Preview (April 16)

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds

Through two games of this National League East bout, it’s been all Miami Marlins. The Fish have taken the first two against the Philadelphia Phillies, who limp into Saturday night’s matchup losers of four straight. 

The Marlins will look to keep their hopes at a four-game sweep alive behind the arm of Trevor Rogers, while the Phillies turn to a southpaw of their own in Ranger Suarez. 

Can the Philadelphia offense right the ship behind Suarez en route to a win, or will the Marlins continue to roll against their division rival at home?

Suarez Looks to Bounce Back for Phillies

Ranger Suarez struggled in his season debut against the New York Mets, leaving after just 2 2/3 innings of three-run ball. But the southpaw had to deal with Alec Bohm’s nightmarish struggles, as he committed three errors before Suarez departed. 

It was, however, the last time Philadelphia won a game. They rallied and scored five in the eighth inning to take down the Mets. 

To put it mildly, Suarez was dominant in 2021. He started out as a reliever before being stretched out in the rotation and from there, he took off. He finished with a 1.36 ERA over 106 innings — 12 starts — and ranked in the top four percent of all pitchers in xERA (2.60), xSLG (.278) and xWOBA (.250), per Baseball Savant. 

There’s a lot to love about Suarez. He limits hard contact, easily handles left-handed hitting and doesn’t have much trouble against righties, either. 

Even when given a crack at the starting rotation, his numbers don't take a drastic hit. He had a 1.51 ERA and opponents hit just .219 against the lefty with an on-base and slugging percentage both under .285.

The biggest critique on Suarez when it comes to advanced metrics is his left on-base percentage, which sat at 86% in 2021. That ranked inside the top five among pitchers with 70-plus innings and is about 15% higher than league average.

Suarez has faced the Marlins twice as a starting pitcher last season, shutting the Fish out in 12 innings with 16 strikeouts.

Marlins Looking to Continue Dominance Against Phils

After a sluggish opening series on the road against the San Francisco Giants, the Marlins have responded with two straight wins, holding the Phillies offense to just three runs in two games.

If there’s one area the Marlins have excelled in over the last couple of seasons, it’s the development of their young pitchers, turning them into reliable starters. Enter Trevor Rogers, who excelled in his 2021 rookie season.

The southpaw finished with a 2.64 ERA and 2.55 FIP. He was able to keep the ball inside the park (0.41 HR/9) and held the opposition to a .223 xBA. Rogers also had reverse splits last season, holding right-handers to a .206 average and .269 on-base percentage. He was a finalist for Rookie of the Year for a reason, and should continue to provide stability in the middle of the Miami rotation in 2022. 

The critique toward Rogers would be his xERA and xFIP in 2021, which sat at 3.37 and 3.54, respectively, That signals he was due for some negative regression that never came and got quite fortunate at times last season.

Rogers has faced the Phillies the most of any team in his limited experience, giving up just six runs over 22 2/3 innings. The Fish are 3-1 in those starts with the Phillies never tagging the southpaw for more than two runs. 

Phillies-Marlins Pick

This is going to be a fun matchup between two southpaws that enter off a fantastic 2021 season. But I think that Suarez and the Phillies hold the slight edge here.

If you take a look at the previous two games between the Phillies and Marlins, it was actually the Phillies that graded out better offensively despite being outscored 11-4.

In their Thursday loss, the Phillies had an xBA of .237 to Miami's .171, yet plated just three runs in the 4-3 loss. The next day? An even more shocking .301 xBA in another loss where they scored just one run, per Baseball Savant.

It's not like the Phillies bats are swinging poorly, they're just getting bad bounces and a bit misfortunate. They're due for a bounce back performance and I think it'll come against Rogers and the Marlins.

Back Suarez the Philadelphia to get back on track and end their four-game losing streak on Saturday night in Miami.

Pick: Phillies ML (to -115)