Phillies vs Rockies Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions (May 24)

Phillies vs Rockies Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions (May 24) article feature image

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto.

Phillies vs Rockies Odds

Friday, May 24
8:40 p.m. ET
Phillies Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-118o / -104u
Rockies Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-118o / -104u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Baseball’s best team, the Philadelphia Phillies, continue their red-hot streak. They have a 36-14 record through 50 games, marking the best start in franchise history.

They just swept the reigning World Series champions in dominant fashion and have now won 15 straight series. Philly has swept seven of its last 12 series, including a three-game sweep against the Rockies in mid-April.

Colorado, meanwhile, is the National League’s worst team. The Rockies are just 16-33 and have the worst roster in the league.

Betting against the Phillies right now would be insane. Looking at the opening Phillies vs. Rockies odds, I am never comfortable laying -200 in a baseball game.

So, where else can we find value for our Phillies vs. Rockies best bet? Let's dive in.

Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Philadelphia Phillies

Cristopher Sanchez had a breakout season last year in his move to the starting rotation, pitching to a 3.44 ERA in 18 starts. After starting his career in the bullpen with mixed results, the Phillies' development staff worked with him to retool his approach.

Sanchez dropped his velocity down a few notches, and in turn, cut his walk rate from 9.6% in 2022 to 4.0% in 2023. The drop in velocity didn’t affect his strikeout rate — in fact, it rose from 19.8% to 24.2%.

The southpaw pounds the bottom of the zone with a sinker-changeup combination and has generated a 62.6% groundball rate, the fourth-highest mark in the league. Against the Rockies earlier this year, Sanchez racked up a career-high 10 strikeouts.

“On fire” is the only way to describe the Philadelphia offense right now. It has scored 277 runs in 51 games — 15 more than the next closest team. Over the last month, it ranks second in wOBA and wRC+.

Seven of its nine regular hitters own a wRC+ of at least 110 this season. All-Star shortstop Trea Turner is on the injured list, but backup Edmundo Sosa is still hitting .323 and has a wRC+ of 161.

Colorado Rockies

After bouncing between the Major Leagues and Triple-A last season, Ty Blach has bounced between the bullpen and rotation this year. He has made three starts and three appearances in relief since being recalled at the end of April.

Blach has a 5.14 ERA on the season, and his starts have not gone well. In three starts, he has allowed 11 runs in 13 innings for a 7.62 ERA. He got shelled for six runs in his last outing against San Francisco.

Blach also has just a total of five strikeouts over those three starts. His 3.46 K/9 rate as a starter is the third-lowest among all pitchers with more than two starts.

The one saving grace for Blach is he has allowed just one home run on the season.

Even playing half their games at altitude isn't enough to save this Rockies offense. Colorado sits 27th in wRC+, and Ryan McMahon and Elias Diaz are the only players with a wRC+ above 110.

Colorado has been hitting the ball well of late, sitting fifth in the league in scoring and third in wOBA over the last two weeks. But I’m not sure that will be enough to outscore these Phillies right now.

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Phillies vs Rockies

Betting Pick & Prediction

Philadelphia is averaging 6.4 runs per game over the last month. Now, it's playing in thin air against a pitcher with a 5.43 xERA and one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball.

Opponents have a .327 xBA and .365 xwOBA against Blach, and both rank near the top of the league.

Oh, and behind Blach is a bottom-three bullpen. Expect Philadelphia to pile on the runs in this game, which gives us a lot of good options to target for prop bets.

Blach is a left-handed pitcher who relies on a four-pitch mix. He throws a sinker, changeup, cutter and curveball but relies on his sinker over 50% of the time.

That's a problem considering his sinker has allowed a .364 batting average and .369 xwOBA against. Opponents have a 45.7% hard-hit rate against a pitch he throws more than half the time. The math does not work in his favor there.

Do you know who crushes sinkers? J.T. Realmuto. The Phillies' catcher is hitting .379 with a .459 xwOBA and 61.5% hard-hit rate against sinkers this season. This is an excellent matchup for Realmuto, who is hitting .365 with a 1.007 OPS against left-handed pitchers this year.

Realmuto has been hitting the ball well against everybody this season and is batting .337 with a .943 OPS over the last month. He also ranks in the top 10% of the league in hard-hit percentage.

The Phillies should score a lot of runs here at Coors Field, and Realmuto should be right in the middle of it all batting second in this lineup.

Over his last 10 games, Realmuto has tallied at least two hits, runs and RBIs eight times. He’s had at least three in six of them. I’m all for anything that targets Realmuto in this game.

Pick: J.T. Realmuto Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

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