The New York Mets host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 27, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Brewers are favored by -225 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +188 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Brewers vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Mets Prediction
- Brewers vs Mets Pick: Mets +1.5 (+102)
Our Brewers vs Mets best bet is on New York to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Mets Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -122 | 7 -122o / -100u | -225 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +102 | 7 -122o / -100u | +188 |
- Brewers vs Mets moneyline: Brewers -225, Mets +188
- Brewers vs Mets over/under: 7 (-122o / -100u)
- Brewers vs Mets spread: Brewers -1.5 (-122), Mets +1.5 (+102)
Brewers vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| Jacob Misiorowski (RHP, MIL) | Stat | Sean Manaea (LHP, NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | W-L | 4-5 |
| 5.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 1.68/1.99 | ERA / xERA | 4.31/4.80 |
| 2.14/2.10 | FIP / xFIP | 4.53/4.20 |
| 33.3% | K-BB% | 15.4% |
| 44.8% | GB% | 37.2% |
| .229 | BABIP | .299 |
| 128 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 101 | Location+ | 98 |
Brewers vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers (82-51) visit the New York Mets (60-73) tonight at Citi Field to decide their three-game series.
Both squads enter this rubber match following a split in the opening two contests. New York managed a tight 3-2 victory in extra innings on Tuesday, but Milwaukee answered back with authority on Wednesday, taking an 8-1 win behind a three-run home run from Brice Turang.
The Brewers bounced back impressively in that matchup despite losing starting pitcher Dustin May to an injury after throwing just one pitch.
Tonight's deciding matchup features an intriguing battle on the mound. The Brewers send ace Jacob Misiorowski (13-5, 1.68 ERA) to the bump.
Misiorowski has been dominant throughout the campaign, cementing himself as the frontrunner for the National League Cy Young Award.
However, he faces a minor personal hurdle tonight as he searches for his first career win against New York, currently holding an 0-1 record with a 5.87 ERA over two previous starts against them.
Left-hander Sean Manaea (4-5, 4.31 ERA) gets the nod for the Mets, aiming to keep Milwaukee's lineup in check.
Brewers vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
While Milwaukee boasts the clear pitching advantage on paper with their Cy Young favorite, the betting value aligns with taking the Mets +1.5 on the run line.
This situation fits well into Evan Abrams' "Short Dogs on Short Losing Streak, Non-Divisional" betting framework. The strategy identifies underdogs that are coming off a minor skid or a heavy loss, taking on a elite non-division opponent with a high win percentage.
Due to recent results and public perception, lines against strong teams like the Brewers often get inflated, creating excess value on the underdogs.
Because non-divisional matchups carry natural volatility and less overall team familiarity, backing a capable home underdog to bounce back offers a strong structural edge.
With the total set at 7 runs, expect a close rubber match where the Mets keep it competitive to cover the +1.5 spread.
Pick: Mets +1.5 (+102)
