We've got a smaller, 7-game MLB slate today on Thursday, August 27, starting early with Rockies vs Nationals (1:05 PM ET, Nationals Park) and closing with Astros vs Yankees (7:05 PM ET, Yankee Stadium).
Read on for our 5 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 PM | |
  | 2:15 PM | |
  | 7:05 PM | |
  | 7:07 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Paul's Rockies vs Nationals Best Bet
By Sean Paul
Pitching in Colorado isn't for the faint of heart, and rookie right-hander Gabriel Hughes is learning his lesson the hard way.
You won't leave impressed by Hughes just by looking at his ERA, a robust 6.54. Under the hood, Hughes boasts a 3.47 xERA and 3.86 FIP, which indicates he's pitching much better than his ERA says.
In the minors this year, Hughes punched out over 11 batters per nine innings, but he's punching out just 7.65 at the MLB level.
Even with the dip in strikeouts, Hughes has the tools to thrive at this level. The 6-4 righty is masterful at generating weak contact, ranking in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 91st in average exit velocity. He doesn't throw hard, but his elite extension and high arm angle make his 92 mph four-seamer play up.
The last five weeks have been quite rough for the Rockies' offense, as over their past 31 games, they have an 82 wRC+ (27th). Some of their more valuable bats, such as Mickey Moniak, Jake McCarthy, and TJ Rumfield, started to slump, and power-hitting catcher Hunter Goodman just returned from an IL stint.
I wouldn't call this Rockies offense a world beater even at full strength, but they're better than 27th with Goodman back.
The Nationals' pitching staff has been a total mess on all fronts this year.
Whether it's the rotation or the constant shuffling of names in the pen, nothing is working. That includes Jake Irvin, who has a 5.82 ERA with a 5.37 xERA and 5.06 FIP in 16 starts.
In four of Irvin's past five outings, he gave up 4+ earned runs, a trend he'll look to snap against the Rockies.
Notably, Irvin is getting hit very hard, ranking in the 4th percentile in barrel rate and 6th percentile in hard-hit rate. Thus, Irvin has a 1.63 HR/9 because when fly ball pitchers get hit hard, the ball tends to leave the yard.
It's not a recent thing for Irvin to be one of the worst pitchers in the league; it was true in his 33 starts last year, too. Irvin has a 49-game sample with an ERA well over 5.00 — and the Nats continue to trot him out.
Prior to James Wood getting hurt and Luis Garcia getting flipped to the Yankees, the Nationals boasted one of the top offenses in the league. However, they rank 24th in wRC+ since dealing Garcia, whose bat-to-ball skills and power helped tremendously next to Wood and CJ Abrams.
Now, Abrams is getting less hittable pitches as the clear number one option, and his wRC+ is down to 77 since the deadline with a 32% strikeout rate. Only three hitters in that span have a wRC+ above 100 (Keibert Ruiz, Andres Chapparo, and Jacob Young).
This lineup still has weapons, but it basically needs to average 4-5 runs a game to have a chance most nights due to their pitching being so poor. That isn't happening of late, and it's led to them dropping 11 of 13 games.
The Rockies are the play here for me. Hughes has a path to putting together a strong start if his positive regression starts to come around.
That path feels less likely for Irvin, and I want no business with the Nationals' bullpen in a close game.
Pick: Rockies ML (-120 or Better)
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Action PRO's Orioles vs Cardinals Best Bet
By Action PRO
While Trevor Rogers has enjoyed a productive stretch on the mound, his prop lines are currently inflated relative to his projected strikeout efficiency.
Action PRO expect Rogers to fall well short of high strikeout totals in this spot, slating him for roughly 3.67 strikeouts against a disciplined Cardinals lineup that excels at getting on base.
Comparing this projection against the market consensus line of 4.5 strikeouts creates a significant 23.4% edge favoring the low side.
St. Louis makes consistent enough contact to limit extended strikeout sequences, making this value point an elite play.
Pick: Trevor Rogers Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100 or Better)
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Derek Carty's Astros vs Yankees Best Bet
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Gerrit Cole's pitching outs prop.
THE BAT X is projecting him to record 16.20 pitching outs, while oddsmakers are implying 18.16. The model believes there is a 58% chance he records fewer than 18 pitching outs.
This play is good down to at least -112.
Pick: Gerrit Cole Under 17.5 Outs (-112 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Royals vs Blue Jays Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
The underlying metrics suggest that Noah Cameron’s 4.02 ERA is probably who he is (or has been this year).
He has a 3.59 FIP, but only 14 of his 33 barrels have left the yard. His pitch modeling is conflicting (4.44 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+), and it’s not just one pitch; they differ on most of his arsenal.
The remainder of his estimators range from a 4.05 FIP to a 4.23 dERA.
However, over the last month, Cameron has a 1.26 ERA with a 3.96 SIERA (15 K-BB%), but a 1.89 xERA (1 barrel with a 31.5 HardHit%). It’s kind of crazy because in the preceding five starts, he allowed 11 barrels.
His velocity also went from 92.5 mph in July to 93.1 mph in August.
Cameron has struck out at least seven in three of his last five starts (also five of his last eight), but just two in the other two. One of those was against the Dodgers. The other was against the Tigers in his last start, in which he averaged 92 mph, his lowest velocity in a start since May.
His PitcherList card does grade him a B+ for Location against Detroit, though.
What have we established?
He can be an effective pitcher, if also a volatile one without all the kinks ironed out.
Though the Blue Jays have just an 80 wRC+ against LHP as a team, their projected lineup averages a 99 wRC+ at home, 105 vs LHP and 102 over the last 30 days. The main caveat being that only Kaz Okamoto (.240) and the recently promoted Daz Cameron (.308) have ISOs above .134 against southpaws this year.
The projected Kansas City defense has accumulated 14 FRV, although that also counts Sal Perez’s -9. If he’s not behind the plate they improve by about that much, though Bobby Witt Jr. is also responsible for 18 FRV on his own and Michael Massey (5) is in the projected lineup, but may not play.
This will be a lot quicker: the Royals have the worst bullpen estimators in the league over the last 30 days and are BARTOLO’s 2nd worst unit.
Whereas Cameron has been volatile, Spencer Arrighetti has been just bad.
His 22.7 K% isn’t bad, but he comes about it with a career-worst 9.8 SwStr% and no improvement in a league-average called strike rate.
He’s also allowing 8.2% Barrels/BBE on a 31.1 HardHit%. That’s kind of hard to do even with a 35.1 GB%.
A 13 BB% caps it all off, which is how you get a 4.73 ERA matching his 4.72 SIERA, while being below all of his remaining non-pitch modeling estimators.
The Blue Jays opened for him in his first outing with the team. It did not work. Five of the 15 batters he faced reached base. Three scored. One of the two barrels on just nine batted balls left the yard.
While the projected Kansas City lineup struggles on the road (88 wRC+), they’ve been fine against RHP (103 wRC+, .163 ISO) and hot over the last month (113 wRC+) with Vinnie Pasquantino (200 wRC+), Jac Caglianone (191) and Bobby Witt Jr. (151) all returning from injuries furiously.
The projected Toronto defense averages the same 14 FRV as Kansas City. Alejandro Kirk is responsible for nine of those. Kaz Okamoto (-3) and Ernie Clement (-3) are the only negatives.
The Toronto bullpen has the 6th-worst estimators over the last month, though BARTOLO ranks them 14th. Better than Kansas City either way.
I have Cameron about a run better than Arrighetti, or double what BARTOLO makes the gap. I just see two pitchers going in different directions this year. Even if Cameron reverts here, the Royals still have a chance against Arrighetti.
I actually rate the Kansas City offense a bit better as well, and part of that is Arrighetti’s massive split, favoring LHBs by 100 points of wOBA (LHBs .364 wOBA, .379 xwOBA), while Cameron has a slightly reverse one (LHBs .325 wOBA, .324 xwOBA/RHBs .287 wOBA, .309 xwOBA).
The defenses are comparable with projected lineups also favoring the Royals by a very marginal 4 BRR.
We can avoid bullpens completely by taking the Royals F5 (-125).
Pick: Royals F5 ML (-125 or Better)
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Doug Ziefel's Dodgers vs Braves Best Bet: (EDITORIAL LANGUAGE)
By Doug Ziefel
It has been quite the gauntlet for the 37-year-old lefty, Chris Sale. Over his last six starts, five of the opposing lineups he faced have been from teams in playoff contention.
What's so impressive is that he passed each test with flying colors as he tossed a quality start in each of them and racked up 49 strikeouts in that six-start span. However, his trials continue tonight with another challenge in the form of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Although Sale is no stranger to Los Angeles. Back in May, he tossed seven innings of two-run ball while striking out seven. Tonight, he gets to face the defending champs on his home mound and is in line to replicate his success.
The Dodgers have been very solid against lefties overall this season, but it's clear that Sale is not your average left-hander. Sale has pitched to a 2.11 ERA and has an elite CSW of 32.3, which has helped him strike out over 31 percent of batters this season.
We know the Dodgers lineup is dangerous, but amongst the star power is plenty of swing-and-miss. Five hitters in the Los Angeles lineup either have a below-average strikeout rate or a below-average swing-and-miss rate.
One bat not included in that is catcher Ben Rortvedt, who only has eight at-bats against lefties and, being a lefty himself, is fully susceptible to Sale's arsenal.
With Sale expected to work through the sixth inning again tonight, his strikeout upside is evident.
Back him and take advantage of this plus-money price.
Pick: Chris Sale Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+120 or Better)
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