The Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 24, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Pirates are favored by -132 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Brewers are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Pirates vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction
- Pirates vs Brewers Pick: Brandon Woodruff Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-114, DraftKings)
Our Pirates vs Brewers best bet is Brandon Woodruff to stay under his outs prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Brewers Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +139 | 7 -110o / -110u | -126 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -168 | 7 -110o / -110u | +104 |
- Pirates vs Brewers moneyline: Pirates -132, Brewers +110
- Pirates vs Brewers over/under: 7 (-110o / -110u)
- Pirates vs Brewers spread: Pirates -1.5 (+138), Brewers +1.5 (-164)
Pirates vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Paul Skenes (RHP) | Stat | Brandon Woodruff (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.27/2.36 | ERA / xERA | 3.42/2.79 |
| 3.47/3.87 | FIP / xFIP | 3.74/4.27 |
| 18.2 | K-BB% | 17 |
| 43.6 | GB% | 54.4 |
| .204 | BABIP | .227 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 111 | Location+ | 99 |
Pirates vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
By Derek Carty
This pick stems from multiple issues we've seen from Brandon Woodruff this season.
Since he came back from the injury around the middle of last year, his pitch counts have been down. They haven't been letting him go super deep into games.
I'm not impressed by what I've seen from Woodruff since then. His ERAs look good—he posted around a 3.2 ERA last year and is sitting in the low-to-mid 3s so far this year—but if you look at FanGraphs, The BAT X is projecting him for about a 4.5 ERA the rest of the season. A lot of that comes down to his stuff just not being the same as it was pre-injury.
When I look at his Statcast data, he used to be a mid-3s expected-ERA type of guy. Now he's in the upper 4s. Last year it was 4.76, this year it's 4.68. His expected strikeout rate is also down below 20% this season. He's simply a guy who's getting lucky right now.
You look at his BABIP: .243 last year and .227 so far this year. He's facing a sneaky-solid Pirates team, so between the capped pitch counts and the talent-level regression I expect, this looks like a pretty strong bet on the under.
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Pick: Brandon Woodruff Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-114, DraftKings)
