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MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sharps & Systems Aligned on Pirates vs. Reds (Friday, August 6)

MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sharps & Systems Aligned on Pirates vs. Reds (Friday, August 6) article feature image

John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Hoy Park of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

  • The Cincinnati Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates in Friday's Major League Baseball showdown.
  • Sharp betting action has come in on the Pirates in this affair, which tells us we might have a live underdog.
  • Check out more information below on this intriguing NL Central matchup.

Pirates vs. Reds Odds

Pirates Odds +165
Reds Odds -197
Over/Under 9.5 
Time 7:10 p.m. ET

Big underdogs are all the rage these days.

Our MLB PRO Report, which aggregates and summarizes five key betting value indicators, has been all moneyline underdogs of late and that looks like unlikely to change on Friday.

Four of the PRO Report’s five value signals are aligned on the Pirates vs. Reds matchup, so, once again, we’ve got a dog to consider on the MLB card..

Let’s not waste anymore time and dive into why our betting tools are so bullish on this Pirates vs. Reds matchup.

Pirates vs. Reds Pick 

Sharp Action

On Thursday afternoon, the Pirates sat as +185 underdogs at DraftKings for their game against the Reds.

Thanks to three separate shots of sharp betting action, that number has been driven down to +165 (click here for live MLB odds) by bettors with the resources and respect to move lines.

PRO Systems

Because the majority of bettors — just 21% have had the courage to take the Pirates thus far — are avoiding the road underdogs, Pittsburgh qualifies for The Action Network’s Betting Against the Public PRO System, which has produced a profit of 153.6 units since the start of the 2005 season.

Model Projection

Sure, the Pirates’ price has already gotten shorter thanks to the sharp action detailed above, but our MLB PRO Projections still suggest there’s enough meat left on that bone for those late to the Pittsburgh party.

Our model projects the Pirates at +141, which translates to a B-minus graded, 3.8% edge when compared to the current consensus line of +165.

And now, let’s be real.

A projected moneyline of +141 correlates to a 41.49% implied probability that Pittsburgh will win. So, to be frank, our model still expects the Pirates to lose.

However, when compared to the 37.74% probability that the +165 implies, the value is there to warrant a wager.

Top Experts

And the icing on the PRO Report cake? Two of our top betting experts are also making a value play on Pittsburgh.

PRO Report Pick: Pirates (+165)

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