The Philadelphia Phillies host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT and NBC Sports Philadelphia.
Find my Pirates vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Pirates vs Phillies Prediction
- Pirates vs Phillies picks: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Doubles (+425)
My Pirates vs Phillies best bet is Bryce Harper to record a double. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Phillies Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 9 -100o / -116u | +192 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 9 -100o / -116u | -237 |
Pirates vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Andrew Heaney (PIT) | Stat | LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.15 / 4.32 | ERA /xERA | 5.91 / 2.91 |
| 4.19 / 4.20 | FIP / xFIP | 1.88 / 2.97 |
| 1.12 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 10.7% | K-BB% | 18.6% |
| 45.4% | GB% | 51.7% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 99 | Location+ | 109 |
Alex Kolodziej’s Pirates vs Phillies Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Bryce Harper Prop Edge
A smart, underrated way to approach Pirates vs. Phillies on Friday is by betting on Bryce Harper to hit a double.
Rather than going for the obvious homer, our PRO Projections — which utilize proprietary data and expert analysis to spot betting edges by comparing odds, player performance projections, and market trends — highlight a valuable opportunity in Harper’s doubles total.
The Phillies are kicking off their series at home against the Pirates with a relatively high total, making it an ideal environment for extra-base hits.
According to Park Factors, the Citizens Bank Park ranks seventh in the league for doubles, further boosting the likelihood of Harper finding the gap. Harper has consistently provided a potent bat, but home run odds tend to be inflated in this matchup, reducing potential value.
Instead, focusing on Harper’s doubles is the ideal route.
Our models project a probability of approximately 0.31 doubles in Friday’s home opener.
At BetMGM, the odds for a Harper double sit at +425, which stands out compared to +320 at other sportsbooks, giving bettors a clear edge worth locking in.
Pick: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Doubles (+425; BetMGM)
Moneyline
I have no bet on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also passing on the game spread.
Over/Under
I have no bet on the game total.
