PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop for Tuesday: Julio Urias’ Pitching Outs Have Value
Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urias.
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Julio Urias, Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115)
|Prop||Julio Urias Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115)|
|Matchup||Pirates vs. Dodgers|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
Because last baseball season feels as if it was decades ago, as opposed to months, it’s easy to forget how excellent Julio Urias was in his first full season as a starter for the Dodgers. Urias went 20-3 with a 2.96 ERA while pitching a career-high 185 regular season innings. So far this season, while his record is only 3-4, his ERA sits at a pristine 2.49.
He’s not much of a strikeout pitcher, but Urias excels with his ability to avoid hard contact. His Soft-Contact Rate of 23.6% ranks 16th out of 137 pitchers (min. 30 IP). This has allowed the left-hander to maintain a relatively low Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) of .241.
This matchup is ideal for Urias since Pittsburgh is already a soft-contact team. Pittsburgh has the fifth-highest Soft-Contact Rate against lefties this season. And while the Pirates do take a lot of pitches (they have the highest Called Strike Rate in baseball), Urias’ control should mitigate the risk of lengthy at-bats. The southpaw ranks 20th in Strike Rate and 115th in pitches per plate appearance.
And yes, the Dodgers do keep their young hurler on a tight leash with his pitch count. However, with the Dodgers starting Mitch White tomorrow after they used long reliever Yency Almonte for two innings yesterday, I see Dave Roberts allowing Urias to get through 6 innings tonight.
Pick: Julio Urias Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115 | Play to -135)
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