PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop for Tuesday: Julio Urias’ Pitching Outs Have Value

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Julio Urias, Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115)

Because last baseball season feels as if it was decades ago, as opposed to months, it’s easy to forget how excellent Julio Urias was in his first full season as a starter for the Dodgers. Urias went 20-3 with a 2.96 ERA while pitching a career-high 185 regular season innings. So far this season, while his record is only 3-4, his ERA sits at a pristine 2.49.

He's not much of a strikeout pitcher, but Urias excels with his ability to avoid hard contact. His Soft-Contact Rate of 23.6% ranks 16th out of 137 pitchers (min. 30 IP). This has allowed the left-hander to maintain a relatively low Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) of .241.

This matchup is ideal for Urias since Pittsburgh is already a soft-contact team. Pittsburgh has the fifth-highest Soft-Contact Rate against lefties this season. And while the Pirates do take a lot of pitches (they have the highest Called Strike Rate in baseball), Urias’ control should mitigate the risk of lengthy at-bats. The southpaw ranks 20th in Strike Rate and 115th in pitches per plate appearance.

And yes, the Dodgers do keep their young hurler on a tight leash with his pitch count. However, with the Dodgers starting Mitch White tomorrow after they used long reliever Yency Almonte for two innings yesterday, I see Dave Roberts allowing Urias to get through 6 innings tonight.

Pick:  Julio Urias Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115 | Play to -135)

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