PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Picks: How to Bet Patrick Sandoval & Justin Steele (Wednesday, July 5)
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Sandoval (Angels)
PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Patrick Sandoval Under 17.5 Outs -110
|Matchup||Angels vs. Padres|
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
Contributing to yet another underachieving half season of Angels baseball has been the decline of Patrick Sandoval. The Angels starter has pitched to a 4.51 ERA, a far cry from the 2.91 ERA he posted across 27 starts last season.
Sandoval has gone under this outs line in nine of 15 starts, which includes six of eight starts in away games. And against this Padres lineup, the southpaw should struggle to get to the six-inning benchmark.
Over the last month, the Padres own a 118 wRC+ and .788 OPS against lefties, ranking seventh and sixth, respectively. Eleven of the last 14 lefty starters have stayed under this line against San Diego.
Coupled with their strong hitting is a very patient approach at the plate. The Padres see 3.98 pitches per plate appearance, the third-highest mark in all of baseball.
And in terms of swinging at pitches out of the zone, the Padres have the third-lowest chase rate.
Sandoval hits the strike zone only 41.9% of the time, relying on an above-average chase rate. I see that hurting him against a patient Padres team tonight.
I have Sandoval projected at 16 outs today, and I would play this line to -135.
Pick: Patrick Sandoval Under 17.5 Outs (-110) | Play to -135
Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts -120
|Matchup||Cubs vs. Brewers|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
A pervasive theme for the Brewers the last few seasons has been their inability to hit against left-handed pitching.
2023 is no exception, with Milwaukee ranking 29th in wRC+ against southpaws (81) with the league’s highest strikeout rate (27.9%).
Enter Justin Steele: The Cubs starter has established himself as one of the better lefties in todays game, en route to his first All-Star selection.
And despite being more of a soft contact-inducing pitcher, Steele has cleared this line in four of his last six full starts.
His best pitch is his slider, and with a 129 Stuff+ rating, it’s the sixth-best slider amongst pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched this season.
In 112 plate appearances against the pitch, opponents have struck out 32 times.
The Brewers, as a team, struggle mightily against the slider (27th in baseball in wRC per 100 pitches against the pitch, at -0.82). And with their propensity to work themselves into two-strike counts, Steele should be able to unleash the pitch aplenty.
I have Steele projected at 6.5 punch-outs tonight, and I would play this line to -135.