MLB Player Props: Can Madison Bumgarner Strike Out Six Reds?

MLB Player Props: Can Madison Bumgarner Strike Out Six Reds? article feature image

Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner

Mother’s Day is full of baseball with another 15 games in store for us. Similar to Saturday, I’m looking at one underdog at the moment, but I may be adding more in the Action App as the day progresses.

MLB Player Props, Sunday, May 12

  • Giants vs. Reds: 4:05 p.m. ET

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 10:50 a.m. ET. View live odds here.

Giants SP Madison Bumgarner

The Pick: Under 5.5 (+120)

Bumgarner has been pretty solid this season, averaging a 9.24 K/9 with a 25.1% strikeout rate. That said, the matchup against the Red isn’t exactly an exploitable one in terms of strikeout upside.

This season the Reds have handled left-handed pitchers quite well. They’ve forced the ninth-highest walk rate and ninth-lowest strikeout rate against them.

Additionally,  Cinncanti boasts a top-12 wOBA and ISO against lefties this year.  The main concern with the under is the Reds are implied for just 3.5 runs, so Bumgarner has a good opportunity to pitch his usual 6-7 inning game, in which case he’d need just a strikeout per inning to hit the over if that’s the case.

I think a fair line for this prop is about 6.0, so I wouldn’t bet this worse than even money. We currently have him projected for 4.8 strikeouts in the props tool.