MLB Player Props: Can Madison Bumgarner Strike Out Six Reds?
Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner
Mother’s Day is full of baseball with another 15 games in store for us. Similar to Saturday, I’m looking at one underdog at the moment, but I may be adding more in the Action App as the day progresses.
MLB Player Props, Sunday, May 12
- Giants vs. Reds: 4:05 p.m. ET
Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 10:50 a.m. ET. View live odds here.
Giants SP Madison Bumgarner
The Pick: Under 5.5 (+120)
Bumgarner has been pretty solid this season, averaging a 9.24 K/9 with a 25.1% strikeout rate. That said, the matchup against the Red isn’t exactly an exploitable one in terms of strikeout upside.
This season the Reds have handled left-handed pitchers quite well. They’ve forced the ninth-highest walk rate and ninth-lowest strikeout rate against them.
Additionally, Cinncanti boasts a top-12 wOBA and ISO against lefties this year. The main concern with the under is the Reds are implied for just 3.5 runs, so Bumgarner has a good opportunity to pitch his usual 6-7 inning game, in which case he’d need just a strikeout per inning to hit the over if that’s the case.
I think a fair line for this prop is about 6.0, so I wouldn’t bet this worse than even money. We currently have him projected for 4.8 strikeouts in the props tool.