MLB Player Props: Can Madison Bumgarner Strike Out Six Reds?

Mother’s Day is full of baseball with another 15 games in store for us. Similar to Saturday, I’m looking at one underdog at the moment, but I may be adding more in the Action App as the day progresses.

MLB Player Props, Sunday, May 12

• Giants vs. Reds: 4:05 p.m. ET

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 10:50 a.m. ET. View live odds here.

Giants SP Madison Bumgarner

The Pick: Under 5.5 (+120)

Bumgarner has been pretty solid this season, averaging a 9.24 K/9 with a 25.1% strikeout rate. That said, the matchup against the Red isn’t exactly an exploitable one in terms of strikeout upside.

This season the Reds have handled left-handed pitchers quite well. They’ve forced the ninth-highest walk rate and ninth-lowest strikeout rate against them.

Additionally,  Cinncanti boasts a top-12 wOBA and ISO against lefties this year.  The main concern with the under is the Reds are implied for just 3.5 runs, so Bumgarner has a good opportunity to pitch his usual 6-7 inning game, in which case he’d need just a strikeout per inning to hit the over if that’s the case.

I think a fair line for this prop is about 6.0, so I wouldn’t bet this worse than even money. We currently have him projected for 4.8 strikeouts in the props tool.