MLB Player Props Today | Justin Verlander, More (Sunday, October 15)
Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Verlander, who starts in Rangers vs Astros Game 1 and is one of our expert picks for player props on Sunday.
Here's everything you need to know about MLB player props today, including picks for Justin Verlander and more on Sunday, October 15 as the next round of the 2023 MLB postseason gets started.
The Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers in Game 1 of the ALCS tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Astros are short home favorites as they send Justin Verlander to the mound while the Rangers will counter with Jordan Montgomery.
Find my MLB player prop picks for Game 1 of the ALCS between the Rangers and Astros below.
MLB Player Props Today | Sunday, October 15
Corey Seager is obliterating the ball.
Seager has 12 batted balls in 14 at-bats through five playoff games. He's smacked five barrels, with three going for doubles and another for a homer. He boasts a 95.4 miles per hour Average Exit Velocity and an 18-degree Average Launch Angle on those batted balls, resulting in a .433 Expected Batting Average.
He struck out only twice, too. He’s making contact, and it’s all hard contact.
How have pitchers responded to this incomprehensible hot streak?
By pitching around him. Seager has been walked 11 times in 25 plate appearances this postseason.
11 times — that’s a 44% rate. He was intentionally walked twice, and he walked five times in Game 2 against the Orioles.
But he’s recorded at least one walk in all five postseason games.
Yet, BetMGM is hanging +180 odds for him to draw only one.
Seager posted a solid 9% Walk Rate during the regular season, drawing at least one in 43 of 119 regular-season games.
But this Rangers lineup is rolling, and I’m unsure if the Astros can pitch to Seager right now. It might be too tough.
Plus, Verlander has looked a tad shaky.
He walked three batters in his final regular-season start against Arizona and three in his ALDS Game 1 start against Minnesota. Aside from those six walks, he allowed a whopping 62% Hard-hit Rate on 25 batted balls.
Consequently, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Verlander slip up and offer a free pass to the hottest hitter alive. Or, perhaps Verlander will continue the trend of pitching around Seager.
Or, after Verlander is pulled, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Houston reliever stay far away from him in a high-leverage situation late in the game. Maybe they intentionally walk Seager with a man on second in a one-run game, for example.
Either way, after drawing an absurd 11 walks in his past 24 plate appearances, I can’t pass up a +180 price for Seager to draw another in Game 1.
Pick: Over 0.5 Walks +180 (BetMGM)
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Hey, if he’s walking Seager, why not bet him to walk one other guy?
The markets are correlated, after all.
I wrote that Verlander looked a tad shaky. Let’s talk more about why.
When given some time off, Verlander’s breaking-ball command is less consistent. Four of the six walks he issued to Minnesota and Arizona in his last two starts came on sliders, and one came on the curveball.
When Game 1 comes around, Verlander will have had eight days off. As a result, I could see him struggling to hit his spots.
And while Verlander’s command looks good on the season, it’s clear he nibbles more against better teams.
Verlander walked two or more batters in 12 of 27 starts this year, but he issued six free passes in a start against the Dodgers, four against the Braves, three against the Blue Jays and three against the Padres. Those are all teams that finished the season among the top 10 in wRC+.
The Rangers finished the season fourth in wRC+. They also were fifth in Walk Rate (9.5%) and had the lowest Chase Rate (25.5%). This lineup is patient, will see plenty of pitches and will hammer any pitcher.
I could see Verlander struggling to find his secondary location and/or nibbling in high-leverage situations. There are plenty of avenues to two walks. Hopefully, one of them is a free pass to Seager.
Pick: Verlander Over 1.5 Walks -105 (BetMGM)
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