The Detroit Tigers host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 11, 2026. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Tigers are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Tigers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Tigers Prediction
- Phillies vs Tigers Pick: Tigers +0.5 F5 Innings Run Line (-122, FanDuel)
My Phillies vs Tigers best bet is on the Tigers to cover the run line through the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Tigers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | -142 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -146 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | +120 |
- Phillies vs Tigers moneyline: Phillies -142, Tigers +120
- Phillies vs Tigers over/under: 7.5 (-114o / -106u)
- Phillies vs Tigers spread: Phillies -1.5 (+122), Tigers +1.5 (-146)
Phillies vs Tigers Kalshi MLB Odds
Phillies vs Tigers Probable Pitchers
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Casey Mize (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-4 | W-L | 4-5 |
| 3.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 2.62/3.19 | ERA / xERA | 2.64/3.01 |
| 2.67/2.60 | FIP / xFIP | 2.72/3.69 |
| 22.8% | K-BB% | 20.0% |
| 57.8% | GB% | 33.7% |
| .326 | BABIP | .263 |
| 118 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 99 | Location+ | 107 |
Phillies vs Tigers MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Last Saturday, Cristopher Sanchez was named an All-Star for the second time after a dominant first half with a 10-3 record and 2.00 ERA.
Then the Phillies wrapped up their series against the Royals on Monday and Sanchez was shelled for career highs in hits (12) and earned runs (9) while tying a career-low with one strikeout over 3 and 1/3 innings. The rough outing raised his ERA to 2.62 and sparked another discussion about his home and road splits.
Historically, Sanchez has been better at Citizens Bank Park with a 2.39 ERA and 0.99 WHIP and 4.17 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road in his career.
This season, he has a 0.86 ERA at home and 5.32 ERA on the road after allowing 18 earned runs in his last three road starts. However, in the three road starts before his rough stretch, Sanchez allowed two earned runs in 23 innings, including a complete game shutout in Pittsburgh.
While it remains to be seen if Sanchez's road struggles will level out, the Phillies will need the best version of him today to avoid dropping the series.
The Phillies got an encouraging outing from Aaron Nola heading into the All-Star break as he struck out eight and allowed just two earned runs over five innings. However, the Tigers got eight runs over the next two innings off the Phillies' bullpen to pull away for a 10-2 victory.
Former Tigers' first round pick Derek Hill homered against his former team and had three of the Phillies' four hits on the night. However, that also means that Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper were hitless on the night and that is usually not a good recipe for the Phillies.
They have not faced Casey Mize too often, but Harper is 2-for-3 with two doubles and Turner has a double against him in three at-bats.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview
With two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal set to become a free agent, the question for much of the year has been whether or not the Tigers would trade him. They certainly looked like sellers after a 6-22 May. However, the Tigers have been making a case to be buyers lately instead.
They have won nine of their last 10 games and have pulled to within 4.5 games of first place in the AL Central and 2.5 games of the third AL Wildcard spot. It has been a complete effort on both sides of the ball as they have a 2.95 team ERA since June 1st.
Their starting pitchers have gone five innings and allowed one earned run or fewer in 10 of their last 14 games while posting a 1.84 ERA in that span.
Casey Mize will look to continue that as he gets the ball tonight. Last season, Mize earned his first All-Star appearance, but this year he has been even better despite battling a few minor injuries. Mize has a posted 2.64 ERA in 72 and 1/3 innings and elite marks in both expected ERA and walk rate.
His splitter was the pitch that made him the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 and it has generated a 34% whiff rate and 32% strikeout rate this season. It has also made him tougher on lefties as he has held them to a .479 OPS. Mize has allowed just two earned runs in 13 and 2/3 innings while striking out 14 over his last two starts.
The Tigers scored 13 runs in two starts, which they have been doing a lot more of lately. Since June 1st, they have hit 63 home runs, eight more than any other team and tied for the most the team has hit in any 34-game stretch in 39 years. They added three home runs to that tally last night, the first by rookie Kevin McGonigle.
It may still be a dream the way his rookie season has played out so far. He closes the first half out facing his team that he grew up rooting for as a kid. Following this series, he will head back to his hometown to play in his first All-Star Game.
Sanchez will pose a difficult matchup for him, but he is still hitting .283 against left-handed pitchers. However, I would not expect Kerry Carpenter and potentially Colt Keith to be in the starting lineup tonight.
Phillies vs Tigers Pick, Betting Analysis
Most good starting pitchers do not have consecutive bad outings, which Sanchez has shown in this stretch, even if his good outings were at home. I would not expect another rough outing from him today, but I also would not be surprised if Mize outpitched or at least matched him today. If so, that will give the Tigers an opportunity to grab an early lead.
It is what they have done over the last two weeks as they covered the runline through the first five innings in 13 of their last 14 games. In many of those games, they had the lead through five innings as well. However, as an underdog today, a tie would also cash this bet.
Pick: Tigers +0.5 First 5 Innings Run Line (-122, FanDuel)
