Rays vs Yankees Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, July 31
Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Domingo German (Yankees)
Rays vs. Yankees Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -132 | 8.5 -106 / -114 | -1.5 +126 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+112 | 8.5 -106 / -114 | +1.5 -152 |
The MLB trade deadline is tomorrow, and neither the Rays nor the Yankees have yet made a move as they slide down the standings. New York hasn’t been sellers at the trade deadline since 2016, and as they sit in last place in the AL East, the front office needs to have some difficult conversations.
Tampa Bay will certainly be buyers this week, looking for somebody to help stop the slide they have been on since their historic start. The same Rays team that started the season 23-6 has managed to go just 7-16 during July and is surely happy to see the month end.
The Yankees and Rays were expected to compete for the AL East division this year, but with the Orioles sitting atop the standings, they are instead fighting for the Wild Card spot.
At least the Rays enter this game following a series win against the Astros. New York returns home after dropping two of three to the Orioles. If the Yankees want to be buyers at the deadline, Monday is their last chance to prove that they are capable of competing in the postseason.
Read below to see where the betting value lies in the series opener between the Yankees and Rays.
Tampa Bay Rays
Tyler Glasnow could be one of the game’s best pitchers if he were simply able to stay healthy. After making his debut in 2016 with the Pirates, Glasnow has never made more than 14 starts in a season. He missed most of the 2021 and 2022 seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Glasnow began the 2023 season on the injured list with an oblique injury and didn’t make his season debut until May 27. In 11 games, he is 4-3 with a 3.36 ERA. It took him a while to regain his form, but he's been dominant as of late.
Over his last six starts, Glasnow has a 2.23 ERA with a 1.94 xFIP. His strikeout rate is up to 13.62 K/9 and remains in the top 3% of the league in that department. The one issue for Glasnow has been allowing hard contact.
Glasnow has allowed a 48.6% hard-hit rate and a 15.3% barrel rate this season, both in the bottom 3% of the league. However, in his last six starts, those numbers are down to 40.7% and 12.3%. His slider and curveball have still been effective, but his fastball velocity is down and it has been hit hard.
This once-lethal offense has gone ice cold. Over the last 30 days, Tampa Bay ranks just 22nd in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA. The stars have especially struggled. Wander Franco is batting .200 with a .642 OPS over the last month, and Randy Arozarena is batting .160 with a .505 OPS.
New York Yankees
Domingo German has put together a very strange season. He has the single most impressive pitching performance of the year, throwing a perfect game on June 29 against Oakland. Yet, he has a 4.77 ERA and has allowed at least four runs in eight of his 19 starts.
How bad has it been for German? Over his last seven starts, German has posted a 7.12 ERA. Yes, his perfect game was in the last seven starts. That is how much he has struggled in the other starts. German has allowed at least five runs in four of his last seven outings.
German has a four-pitch mix but predominantly uses his curveball (40.7%), fastball (27.9%), and changeup (21.1%), with an occasional sinker (10.4%). His curveball and changeup have typically been his best pitch and are once again very effective. However, his fastball has been crushed at a .321 average.
Yankees fans were partying in the streets on Friday as their Lord and Savior, Aaron Judge, returned to the lineup after missing nearly two months. Without their MVP, the Yankees ranked just 28th in wOBA. Judge returned and reached base three times in his first game before going 3-for-5 with a home run on Saturday. He got the day off on Sunday and should be ready to go on Monday.
Rays vs. Yankees Betting Pick
Even with Judge back, the rest of the Yankees' lineup shouldn’t strike fear into any opposing pitcher. Judge also hasn’t been as dominant against Tampa Bay as some other teams in the league. He has a .826 OPS against them, which ranks 26th against all opponents.
As much as the Rays offense has struggled, New York’s offense has been even worse. Since the start of June, Tampa Bay ranks 22nd in wOBA while the Yankees sit 27th.
New York struck out 18 times in last night’s game against the Orioles, which was a franchise record for Baltimore. Dean Kremer has a 5.39 xERA and a career 7.47 K/9 rate and punched out seven Yankees in just four innings. But Aaron Boone thought they “grinded out really well.” So that’s good.
Glasnow and German are going in completely opposite directions. Glasnow took a while to get going after dealing with another injury but has looked dominant since. He has a 2.23 ERA with a 1.94 xFIP over his last six starts and has averaged over nine strikeouts per game. The one area Glasnow has struggled with is allowing a high barrel rate, but the typically hard-hitting Bronx Bombers have a barrel rate that ranks just 20th over the last month.
Despite having a perfect game mixed in there, German has a 7.12 ERA over his last seven starts and has allowed at least five runs in each of his last two outings. His worst pitch has been his fastball. Teams have a .455 wOBA against it this year and no team hits fastballs better than Tampa Bay, a bad recipe for German.
New York is in a tough spot coming off Sunday night baseball and should continue to struggle at the plate against Glasnow. Back Tampa Bay at -135 or better.
Pick: Rays ML (-132) |
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