Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds & Pick: Bet Toronto to Keep It Up In Dunedin (May 18)

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds & Pick: Bet Toronto to Keep It Up In Dunedin (May 18) article feature image
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Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

  • The Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Boston Red Sox in Dunedin, Florida, on Tuesday night.
  • Dunedin has been a fantastic home away from home for the Jays, as they rank second in MLB in runs per game at home.
  • With injuries mounting, Mike Ianniello explains whether or not Toronto can keep it up, and he shares a betting pick based on his analysis.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds

Red Sox Odds +120
Blue Jays Odds -139
Over/Under 9
Time 7:37 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings.

The top two teams in the American League East will face off when the division-leading Boston Red Sox (25-17) head to Dunedin, Florida, to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (22-17) in a three-game series.

Both of these teams are coming off a day off on Monday following series wins. The Red Sox took two out of three from the Angels, while the Blue Jays won the final two games of a three-game set against the Phillies.

These two teams split a brief two-game series on April 20-21 in Boston.

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Red Sox Getting Plenty From Rodriguez

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) missed the entire 2020 season after being diagnosed with myocarditis following a bout with COVID-19. Rodriguez has been great in his return to the diamond, starting the year 5-1 with a 4.15 ERA in his first seven starts.

The first blemish on the season for E-Rod came in his last outing, as he allowed four runs and seven hits over six innings against Oakland. The advanced stats actually indicate Rodriguez has been better than his results. He has a 4.15 ERA and 3.31 xERA, a .263 batting average against and .229 xBA, and a .309 wOBA and .299 xwOBA.

Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez continue to absolutely mash the ball this season batting .344 and .342 respectively. The two are tied for the MLB lead with 52 hits this season. Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers have been great as well, as Devers leads the league with 34 RBIs.

Boston leads the league with a .335 wOBA and a .446 slugging percentage. It ranks tied for second in batting average, hitting .264, and sits third with 112 wRC+.

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Injuries Pile Up for Toronto

The injuries continue to mount up for the Blue Jays.

George Springer has played just four games and is back on the injured list after reinjuring his quadriceps. Catcher Alejandro Kirk, infielder Joe Panik and DH Rowdy Tellez are also out.

The pitching staff has been hit even worse as pitchers Nate Pearson, Tommy Milone, Rafael Dolis, Ryan Borucki, Anthony Castro, David Phelps, Thomas Hatch and Patrick Murphy are all on the injured list.

Luckily, Toronto will have its ace in Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP) on the mound Tuesday. Ryu has pitched to a 2.95 ERA and boasts a 3-2 record in seven starts. He is coming off a terrific one-run and five-hit outing over seven innings against Atlanta. Only Jacob deGrom has a lower ERA than Ryu since 2018.

When these two teams met earlier in the year, Ryu suffered his worse start of the season, allowing eight hits and four runs over five innings while striking out just two Red Sox batters.

The Blue Jays’ big bats have been on a tear recently, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has now homered in three straight games. Vlad Jr. is batting .360 with four home runs in the last six games. Over that same stretch, Teoscar Hernandez has hit .409 with a 1.227 OPS, and Bo Bichette is hitting .320 with an .850 OPS.

Overall, Toronto ranks eighth in the league in batting average, seventh in wOBA and ninth in wRC+ on this season. They also sit sixth in the league averaging 4.92 runs per game.

Red Sox-Blue Jays Pick

As good as the Red Sox bats have been all season, the Blue Jays have been on fire lately, and Toronto has won five of its last six games.

Toronto’s home away from home in Dunedin has been a hitter’s paradise for it this season. The Blue Jays average 6.14 runs per game at home, the second-most in the league. They rank second in wOBA and first in wRC+ in home games. They are 6-2 in their last eight games in Dunedin.

While the Red Sox got to Ryu in their last meeting, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball and should bounce back in this spot and outduel Rodriguez.

With a pitching advantage and bats in similar form, I like Toronto to come away with the win and close the gap on the AL East lead.

Pick:  Blue Jays -135 (Play to -140)

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