MLB Picks Saturday | Red Sox vs Yankees Predictions & Odds (August 19)

MLB Picks Saturday | Red Sox vs Yankees Predictions & Odds (August 19) article feature image

Pictured: Gerrit Cole. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds

Saturday, August 19
1:05 p.m. ET
Red Sox Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-102 / -120
Yankees Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-102 / -120
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

There haven't been many Red Sox/Yankees series that lacked postseason implications. However, as of Friday afternoon, both teams are at least three games back of the last American League Wild Card spot and rank fourth and fifth in the AL East. In Saturday’s matinee, the Red Sox turn to Kutter Crawford, who has shown flashes of excellence this year, while New York will go with its ace, Gerrit Cole.

Neither team has performed well at the dish against right handers, which means the under should be in play throughout the afternoon.

Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Boston Red Sox

Crawford put together an average first half this season, but has seen better results lately with a 3.14 ERA over 28 2/3 innings since the All-Star break. His Average Exit Velocity is 87.8 mph on the season and he also boasts a 35.2% Hard-Hit rate. He walks 6% of batters and strikes out more than 24%.

Kutter Crawford, Nasty 89mph Cutter. ✂️

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 2, 2023

However, Boston hasn't hit righties well. The Red Sox have seen Cole often over the years, but haven't always found success. In August, Boston has posted a 94 wRC+ with a .734 OPS. The strikeout rate has been low (19.2%), but the 7.5% walk rate isn't necessarily phenomenal. The Red Sox only have five bats with a xwOBA over .320, so Cole should feast on the bottom of the batting order.

Boston’s bullpen has been relatively weak this month. It has a 4.80 xFIP, but also has five relievers below the 4.00 mark.

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New York Yankees

Now, Cole is one of MLB’s best starters with a 2.76 ERA against a 3.62 xERA. Regression is in the cards, but it shouldn't hit too hard. Cole ranks around the middle of the pack in both Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate. His walk rate is only 6.7% and his strike out rate is 26.6%.

Gerrit Cole, 98mph ⛽️

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 13, 2023

The Yankees have an 83 wRC+ with a .638 OPS off of righties in August. They strike out more than 25%, too. They have six active hitters with a xwOBA over .320 xwOBA, but that's partially due to their walk rate, which is above 13%. Even with that mark, Crawford doesn't walk many hitters, so he'll be able to negate the Yankees’ patience.

In relief, the Yankees have been good all year. They have a 3.99 xFIP in August and a 24.9% strikeout rate. They are walking over 10% of batters, but otherwise, they're pretty stable.

Red Sox vs. Yankees

Betting Pick & Prediction

Both of these pitchers are too strong for this total to hit as the Red Sox and Yankees haven't hit righties well. Boston has had some hiccups in relief, but shouldn't need anyone unreliable in this game. Take the under to 7.5 (-120) as runs should be few and far between.

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