Reds vs. Brewers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Look For Valuable Prop in NL Central Bout (Friday, August 5)
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Yelich and Tyrone Taylor
- Cincinnati travels to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers after winning a series against the Marlins.
- The Brewers are a heavy favorite to recover some form after a disappointing series against the Pirates.
- Alex Hinton breaks down the NL Central clash.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Reds have won six out of their last ten games, including two-of-three from the Miami Marlins. However, they were shut out by Cy Young Award favorite Sandy Alcantara on Wednesday Night.
The Brewers won seven of their first eight games coming out of the All-Star break. Despite this, they have lost four straight since, including getting swept by the lowly Pirates.
That Pittsburgh series is especially gut-wrenching as Milwaukee blew at least a two-run lead in every game. After the Cardinals swept the Cubs, the Brewers have fallen into a tie for first place in the NL Central.
The Brewers will look to get back on track against a Reds team it has won seven-of-nine meetings against this season. Will the offense lead the way?
Let’s get into it.
Reds Need Turnaround Showing
The Reds are calling up Robert Dugger to make his first start of the season. He has a 4.50 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 12 innings between the Reds and the Tampa Bay Rays this season.
Dugger has shown good stuff in his stints, but he has often worked himself into trouble with a 1.50 WHIP and 15 hits allowed on the year.
The 27-year old has made 12 starts across four big league seasons and is still looking for his first career win. For his career, he has a 6.97 ERA. The Brewers may able to take advantage and jump on him early.
Cincinnati plays in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league at Great American Ballpark.
The Reds average 5.1 runs per game at home, but struggle mightly on the road. They average 3.39 runs per game on the road and hit .223 as a team. That was before trading away 2022 All-Star Brandon Drury, who had been the team’s offensive focal point this season.
Despite winning the series, the Reds scored just five runs over three games in Miami. A better offensive effort will be needed against the Brewers.
Brewers in Strong Home Field Position
The Brewers were swept in Pittsburgh, but don’t blame the bats. They scored 14 runs and hit five home runs in the series. Since the All-Star break, the Brewers are fifth in the majors in runs scored and home runs while ranking third in team batting average.
Outfielder Hunter Renfroe has six home runs and 15 RBIs and is carrying a .900 OPS in that span.
First baseman Rowdy Tellez has three home runs and 10 RBIs and is hitting .417 with a 1.408 OPS in his last seven games. Shortstop Willy Adames’ 21 home runs tie Tellez for the team lead.
Adames has three home runs and 11 RBIs over his last 15 games. He has faced Dugger just one time, but he made it count with a grand slam.
The Brewers pitching let them down against the Pirates as ace Corbin Burnes could not hold a 3-0 lead on Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, the Brewers bullpen blew multiple leads, which coincidentally came after the club traded away the game’s best closer in Josh Hader.
Eric Lauer will get the start for the Brewers and he has followed a strong 2021 season with another solid campaign. The left-hander has a 3.75 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 105.2 innings this season. Lauer can be prone to giving up the long ball with 20 homers on the year.
However, he is much better at home, where he has a 2.85 ERA and only seven home runs allowed.
Since the All-Star break, Milwaukee is averaging 5.9 runs per game. In nine games against the Reds this season, it is averaging 8.1 runs per game. The Brewers have scored at least five runs in every game against the Reds this season and at least six in seven of the nine meetings.
Now, the Brewers are welcoming a journeyman starting pitcher into town when its best players are hot. I like the Brewers to get Dugger early along with a Reds bullpen that ranks last in bullpen ERA. I will be backing Milwaukee to clear its team total.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers team total over 5 runs (-115)