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Friday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Rockies vs. Brewers: Back Milwaukee to Roll Behind Burnes

Friday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Rockies vs. Brewers: Back Milwaukee to Roll Behind Burnes article feature image
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Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes

  • The Rockies and Brewers begin a three-game series to open the second half.
  • Antonio Senzatela will get the start for the Rockies and Corbin Burnes will take the mound for the Brewers.
  • Alex Hinton previews the matchup and offers up his best bet below.

Rockies vs. Brewers Odds

Rockies Odds +220
Brewers Odds -275
Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-120)
Time 8:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds updated as of Friday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Despite a loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, the Colorado Rockies went into the All-Star break with momentum. The team won each of its past three series and eight of 11 games overall. The Rockies will look to continue that momentum against the Brewers on Friday night in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee went the opposite direction heading into the break. It lost three of four to the Giants, including the last three games of the series. The team has also lost eight of its past 12 games overall.

Milwaukee’s lead in the NL Central is down to just a half game as well. The Brewers will give the ball to ace Corbin Burnes to kick off the second half. Will that be enough to get the team back on track?

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Colorado Rockies: Lineup Doesn’t Match Up Well Against Burnes

The Rockies come into play with a .262 team batting average. However, the team does much of its damage at home. On the road, Colorado hits .233 as a club and produces a .692 OPS. It averages 3.02 runs per game on the road and has hit just 24 home runs in 42 road games.

Home runs, and runs in general, will be hard to come by against Corbin Burnes. It will not help matters that the Rockies lineup is loaded with right-handed hitters and they have not had much success against Burnes.

Kris Bryant is just 2-for-12 against Burnes in his career, dating back to Bryant’s time in the NL Central with the Cubs. C.J. Cron is 1-for-6 against Burnes and second baseman Brendan Rodgers is 1-for-5 against the right hander. The Rockies called up outfielder Daniel Montano on Thursday and he may be in the lineup to make his Major League debut.

Antonio Senzatela will get the start for the Rockies and he had a rough first half. He has had a quality start in just four of his 13 first-half starts. Senzatela largely relies on a mid-90s fastball and mid-80s slider.

However, he does not miss many bats and ranks toward the bottom of the league in both strikeout percentage and whiff percentage. He has just 34 strikeouts in 60 innings. He is also allowing a .328 xBA, .488 xSLG and a 41.2 hard-hit rate.

Milwaukee Brewers: Burnes Posting Another Strong Season

Corbin Burnes is the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner and he has followed that up with another dominant performance in 2022. The right-hander is 7-4 with a 2.14 ERA and 144 strikeouts over 113 innings. He leads the NL in ERA and is second in the Majors. Burnes has a .198 xBA and a 2.68 xERA.

He ranks in the 98th percentile in Whiff Rate and in the 92nd percentile in both strikeout and chase percentage. Burnes will face a Rockies lineup heavy on right-handed batters and he is allowing right handers to hit just .179 against him this season.

The Brewers offense can be streaky at times. However, the team is 12th in baseball in runs scored and fourth in home runs. Four Brewers have already hit double-digit homers, led by shortstop Willy Adames’ 19. Second baseman Kolten Wong is 6-for-15 in his career against Senzatela.

Rockies-Brewers Pick

The Brewers have a decided advantage in this game in the starting pitching matchup. Corbin Burnes is 4-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 60 strikeouts in his past seven starts.  Burnes should have no problem cruising right through the Rockies’ lineup. He will likely rack up strikeouts in the process and his strikeout line is currently sitting at 7.5.

On the other side, Antonio Senzatela is likely to get roughed up by this Brewers lineup. He has only allowed five home runs this season, but he has a 1.80 WHIP. Combined with his hard-hit percentage and low strikeout numbers, it is likely the Brewers will have a lot of traffic on the basepaths.

With Burnes and Milwaukee’s elite bullpen, a few runs may be all the Brewers need. The Brewers’ bullpen struggled a bit heading into the break, however, they had the All-Star break to rest up and refocus.

I like the Brewers to take game one of this series, but there is no value in the moneyline price. However, the Brewers should win this game by multiple runs, so I feel comfortable backing them on the runline.

Pick: Brewers -1.5 (-115)

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