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Rockies vs. Brewers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back the Hot Batters in Milwaukee (Monday, July 25)

Rockies vs. Brewers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back the Hot Batters in Milwaukee (Monday, July 25) article feature image
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John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Willy Adames.

  • The Brewers are home favorites on Monday night as they look to sweep the Rockies in the final game of a four-game set.
  • The Rockies will start Kyle Freeland while the Brewers will go with Aaron Ashby on the bump.
  • Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Rockies vs. Brewers Odds

Rockies Odds +165
Brewers Odds -200
Over/Under 8.5
Time 8:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Brewers will look to complete a four-game sweep over the visiting Rockies Monday and build upon their lead atop the NL Central.

Colorado will send Kyle Freeland to the mound Monday as he looks to stop the bleeding for a Rockies staff that has allowed 25 runs throughout the first three games of this series. Milwaukee will counter with Aaron Ashby, who has pitched to an ERA of 4.57 over 69 innings to start the season.

Could we see another high-scoring affair Monday at American Family Field?

Can Freeland and the Rockies Avoid the Sweep?

Colorado’s pitching staff has been in quite poor form of late, with the 29th xFIP of 4.55 over the last 30 days, including a 29th-ranked K/9 Rate of just 6.79.

The Brewers have really taxed Colorado’s staff to start this series with a ton of contact. They will pose a stiff challenge for Freeland as he has pitched to an ERA of 5.86 over his last six starts, with a WHIP of 1.41.

As expected, Freeland has consistently fared far better away from Coors Field, but recently his splits away from home have even begun to regress heavily, with an ERA of 5.77 over his last five road starts. Freeland has pitched to an xERA of 5.10 altogether this season and has allowed a lot of hard contact, with a Strikeout Rate of just 15.4%.

The Rockies have a favorable matchup against the lefty Ashby as they have hit left-handed pitching very effectively this season, with the 10th-best wRC+ of 111 and a .348 wOBA over 1201 plate appearances.

Will the Brewers’ Bats Breakthrough Against a Lefty?

Milwaukee’s batting order has been in strong form over the last month of play, with a ninth-best wRC+ of 111 and a wOBA of .332. However, the Brewers’ splits against left-handed pitching have been more concerning as they have hit to just a 91 wRC+ this season.

Their starting pitcher, Ashby, has had some considerable struggles over his last seven outings, pitching to a 7.71 ERA over 28 innings. Ashby’s xwOBA has climbed considerably over that span, and while he is clearly running with some bad luck looking toward his season xERA of 3.46, his form has taken a dive that seems more significant than simply bad luck.

Rockies-Brewers Pick

Both of these offenses have put up big numbers throughout this series, and I expect this to continue tonight.

Freeland has been in poor form all season long, and things have only gotten worse of late. Even considering the Brewers’ lesser splits against lefties, it’s hard for me to see him managing a significantly better start Monday than we have seen of late. Furthermore, once he exits, the Rockies’ bullpen has been quite middling throughout July.

Colorado has consistently managed better splits against left-handed starters all season and could contribute a strong output to this total in a ballpark which has been kind to batters of late.

I am surprised to see this contest opening with a total of 8.5 as opposed to 9 and see value backing this over at 8.5 up to -120, with the best current value at PointsBet at +100.

Pick: Over 8.5 +100 (Play to -120)

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