MLB Odds & Picks for Rockies vs. Padres: Bet San Diego to Win Big Behind Juan Soto, Brandon Drury
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Juan Soto.
- The San Diego Padres look to sweep the Colorado Rockies in a five-game set on Thursday.
- The Padres unveiled a new lineup yesterday that featured Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury.
- Alex Hinton thinks that matchup can roll tonight, and he explains why with his best bet below.
Rockies vs. Padres Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-112 / -108)|
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
On Thursday afternoon, the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres will complete their five-game series in San Diego. The Padres have taken the first four games, including sweeping a doubleheader on Tuesday.
Last night, San Diego jumped on Colorado early with a five-run first inning en route to a 9-1 victory, fueled by its new acquisitions.
The season series in this matchup has been dominated by the home team this season. The Rockies have won six of the seven meetings in Denver, while the Padres have taken six of the eight meetings in San Diego.
The Padres will have Joe Musgrove on the mound on Thursday. Can Musgrove and the new-look Padres complete the sweep?
Is Colorado Better on Road?
The Rockies have averaged 2.5 runs in the first eight meetings against the Padres this season. That’s very on-brand for how the Rockies have done on the road this season. Colorado averages 3.1 runs on the road and has hit .232 as a team with a .636 OPS.
As a result, the team is 16-34 on the road. Now, the Rockies are once again without Kris Bryant, who’s on the IL for the third time this season, this time with plantar fasciitis in his left foot.
The Rockies’ lineup has had mixed results against Joe Musgrove. Outfielder Charlie Blackmon has hit 7-for-17 lifetime against Musgrove, while utilityman Garrett Hampson is 5-for-11. Shortshop Jose Iglesias sits 4-for-12 with a homer against him.
However, CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon, and Brendan Rodgers all hit below .200 with one home run in 33 combined ABs against Musgrove.
The Rockies will start Kyle Freeland, who’s 6-7 with a 4.63 ERA this season. The veteran left-hander’s xERA nearly matches that mark at 4.84, and he’s allowing a .269 xBA and .441 xSLG.
He ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in all categories. He also ranks in the 13th percentile in strikeout rate and 16th percentile in whiff rate. He could be in for a rough outing against the Padres.
New-Look Padres Rolled on Day 1
At his introductory press conference, Juan Soto told opposing pitchers, “good luck” when facing the Padres’ lineup. If last night’s opening act was any indication, they’re going to need it.
Soto went 1-for-3 with a walk, but it was Brandon Drury who hit a grand slam to cap a five-run first inning. Soto, Drury and Josh Bell, each reached base twice in their Padres debuts.
The deadline moves also appear to have rejuvenated Manny Machado. The Padres’ third baseman has carried the team for much of the season, but he was recently in a 3-for-25 slump, albeit with two homers. Last night, Machado went 3-for-4 with a home run and a double.
He has another great matchup against Freeland. Machado has hit .324 in his career against Freeland, and he has eight home runs and a .931 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season.
Drury is 5-for-10 against Freeland. Nine of his 21 homers have come against LHPs, and he also owns a 1.016 OPS. Jake Cronenworth has hit .300 against Freeland, and Trent Grisham has three home runs off him. Soto is just 2-for-13 against Freeland, although one of the hits was a home run.
For the Padres, Musgrove will be making his first start since signing a five-year, $100-million extension with his hometown team. The right-hander is 8-4 with a 2.65 ERA.
This looks like a great spot for Musgrove, as he’s even tougher at home with a 2.29 ERA. He also has a 2.03 ERA in day games.
He ranks in the 80th percentile or better in walk rate, chase rate, and average exit velocity. On June 10, he struck out eight in six innings and recorded a win against the Rockies in San Diego.
In MLB, it’s difficult to sweep a three-game series, much less a five-game set. That would normally make me skeptical, but all signs point to the Padres rolling here.
Musgrove has been the Padres’ best and most consistent starting pitcher this season. I like him to shut down this Rockies offense, which has been anemic on the road all season.
Freeland is better on the road with a 3.57 ERA, but he has a 6.13 ERA in day games. This Padres lineup should rough him up and get into a bullpen that may be a bit short-handed today.
I like the Padres to complete the sweep in this spot and will back them on the run line.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (-130)