The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres on August 4, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Padres vs Diamondbacks Pick: Over 8.5 (56c, Polymarket)
Padres vs Diamondbacks Polymarket MLB Odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks MLB Betting Preview
Padres vs Diamondbacks Pick, Betting Analysis
Editor’s Note: This written article is a transcription from today’s episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
The Diamondbacks have so many arms on the injured list, from starters (Corbin Burnes) to relievers (AJ Puk). Many of those will come back by September.
So, they’re throwing out one-half of a bad starting pitching matchup in this game. These are two guys who rate as below-average, replacement-level starting pitchers.
Vasquez’s strikeout-minus-walk rate has dipped into the negatives. Rodriguez pitched well over the first few months of the season, but he’s gotten progressively worse over the course of the season.
I don’t love San Diego’s lineup, but it is a very good matchup for them.
I also love both bullpens and don’t want them to get involved.
Still, I project this total around 9.3.
Pick: Over 8.5 (56c, Polymarket)
