The Baltimore Orioles host the San Diego Padres on June 14, 2026. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MASN.
The Orioles are favored by -124 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Orioles Prediction
- Padres vs Orioles Pick: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases
My Padres vs Orioles best bet is on Pete Alonso's total bases prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Orioles Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +106 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -124 |
- Padres vs Orioles moneyline: Padres +106, Orioles -124
- Padres vs Orioles over/under: 9.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Padres vs Orioles spread: Orioles -1.5 (+162), Padres +1.5 (-196)
Padres vs Orioles Probable Pitchers
| Walker Buehler (RHP, SDP) | Stat | Trevor Rogers (LHP, BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 3-6 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 4.33 / 4.76 | ERA / xERA | 6.15 / 4.67 |
| 3.45 / 3.85 | FIP / xFIP | 4.64 / 4.91 |
| 11.7% | K-BB% | 9.0% |
| 48.4% | GB% | 34.5% |
| .315 | BABIP | .313 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 99 | Location+ | 101 |
Padres vs Orioles MLB Betting Preview
The Padres and Orioles will square off on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game interleague series.
Right-hander Walker Buehler will make the start for the Padres, while the O’s will send out lefty Trevor Rogers, who is in horrific form.
Prior to the start of the 2026 season, Rogers was on my short list for a potential longshot AL Cy Young Award candidate after an unbelievably dominant 2025 campaign — finishing the season with a 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.
In 2026, the Orioles’ lefty could not be further from last season’s form and has recorded a terrible 6.15 ERA across 12 starts on the mound thus far.
That said, Buehler has not been much better, with the righty having posted a 4.33 ERA along with a 1.35 WHIP across his first 13 starts in 2026.
Padres vs Orioles Pick, Betting Analysis
Given the atrocious form of both starting pitchers heading into this matchup, I'm inclined to target player prop markets as my betting angle.
In 17 career at-bats versus the former Dodger, Orioles’ righty slugger Pete Alonso has absolutely dominated Buehler.
Alonso is one of the premier power hitters in all of baseball, which makes him a tough out for any starting pitcher. The former Met has blasted a ridiculous four homers off Buehler, having driven in eight runners in the process.
A deeper look into the analytics of this matchup reveals how Alonso has such a substantial edge over the Friars’ righty.
Alonso is a monster when facing four-seam fastballs, regularly yielding his highest slugging metrics and hard-hit rates compared to any other pitch.
While Buehler favors his cutter over any other pitch, his four-seam fastball is definitely his second preferred pitch in a rather versatile arsenal.
In accordance with B.A.R.T.O.L.O. — a new statistical model generated by Action Network’s Sean Zerillo — he is throwing his four-seamer at a 19.4% clip with horrific punch-out metrics.
When throwing his four-seamer in 2026, Buehler has generated just a 5% whiff rate and an even worse 3% strikeout rate.
While posting a low strikeout rate is manageable if a pitcher can retire opposing hitters by some other means (per groundball rates, etc.), B.A.R.T.O.L.O reveals that batters are destroying his Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) — Buehler has allowed a whopping .422 xwOBA to opposing hitters when throwing his four-seam fastball in 2026.
Given Alonso’s previous dominance over Buehler, I expect him to build upon his prior success versus the former Dodger.
Pick: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases
