The San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres on August 12, 2025. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Padres vs Giants Prediction and Pick
- Padres vs Giants Picks: Padres ML (+100) | Play to -110
My Padres vs Giants best bet is on San Diego to win outright with the best odds currently on Fanatics. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Giants Odds, Run Line and Total
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -225 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Padres vs Giants Probable Pitchers
| LHP Nestor Cortes (SDP) | Stat | LHP Robbie Ray (SFG) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 9-5 |
| -0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 7.11/7.12 | ERA /xERA | 2.85/3.39 |
| 10.37/6.60 | FIP / xFIP | 3.69/3.96 |
| 1.58 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 1.7% | K-BB% | 16.1% |
| 34.3% | GB% | 39.9% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 79 | Location+ | 95 |
Kenny Ducey’s Padres vs Giants Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The San Diego Padres may have bolstered their lineup and bullpen admirably at this month's trading deadline, but their rotation remains something of a question mark. JP Sears, who they brought in from the Athletics, has already been sent down to Triple-A after an ineffective start, and now they'll be rolling the dice once again with Nestor Cortes on Tuesday night.
It's not as if Cortes is going to make or break the season, but Dylan Cease has looked as volatile as ever in recent months, Yu Darvish is at the end of his career at 38, and Michael King is making his way back from injury. Any sort of consistency that Cortes can find would be of great help.
There's at least a slight glimmer of hope for Cortes here despite his inconsistency this year. First of all, Cortes made four starts down in the minors prior to the trade, posting a cool 1.00 ERA with a solid 26.1% strikeout rate and low 4.3% walk rate. The second point of emphasis is that he did make it through 4 2/3 innings of two-run ball in his Padres debut, and while he posted a 3:3 K:BB with a home run against him, a solid Arizona Diamondbacks team was limited to just three hits.
As a fly ball pitcher, Cortes should very much enjoy life in San Diego — and the park he'll be asked to work in on Tuesday is just as friendly. We can't reasonably expect him to strike guys out at the level we saw against weaker competition, sure, but the walks should dissipate, considering they've never been a huge issue for the lefty. He should also be able to pitch to few hits, as his .233 Expected Batting Average through 12 1/3 big-league innings this year would indicate.
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview
Robbie Ray, meanwhile, didn't look quite his best last month — but it's been so far, so good through two starts here in August. He's shut down the Mets and Pirates to the tune of a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings, striking out 14 with just a homer and three walks against him.
Unfortunately, there might be some trouble on the horizon. Ray's xBA crept up to .240 in July, and despite the solid results in August, it's at .273 entering play on Tuesday. Crucially, his Expected Slugging has come back down to Earth after a tough July, which is something we often look for in arms that pitch to plenty of strikeouts and fly balls.
Ray has been dynamite inside his pitcher-friendly home park this year, recording a 2.58 ERA in 12 starts with more hits but fewer home runs. You'd expect that to continue, too, with San Diego continuing to rely far more on contact hitting than the longball this season.
Speaking of offensive construction, we should take note of the Giants' poor play of late. They rank just 25th in wRC+ over the last two weeks, running a measly .225 average and .142 Isolated Power. The plate discipline numbers have more or less been fine, but they are going to need to start hitting.
Padres vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Giants have one of the most staggering disadvantages in the league against fly-ball pitchers, ranking 28th in OPS this season against a .701 OPS the other way, which sits 15th in the league. That's a number that has come down in the last month or so, but their performance against fly-ballers has continued to be brutal.
With San Francisco sitting 27th in xBA versus cutters from lefties — something it'll see plenty of against Cortes — and 29th in wRC+ to lefties, there's more than enough here to take the Padres. We're getting a significant discount thanks to Cortes, but his last five outings between the minor and major league levels have been promising, and his heavy fly-ball rate should help him gather plenty of outs on contact with a significant matchup and park advantage.
On the other side of the coin, I do worry a bit about Ray. He's been getting a bit worse as the season's gone on, likely due to progressive fatigue after so many injury-shortened seasons, and while he's at least relegated his opposition to hits and not homers in his home park, that's going to work right into the Padres' hands.
Pick: Padres ML (+100) | Play to -110
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm playing the moneyline tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
I don't like the run line for this game.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from game totals
