The Atlanta Braves host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Find my Wednesday MLB betting preview and Giants vs Braves prediction below.
My Giants vs Braves Prediction
- Giants vs Braves pick: Braves -1.5 (+118 | Play to +110)
My Giants vs Braves best bet is Atlanta to cover the run line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Braves Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -144 | 8 -117o / -104u | +148 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8 -117o / -104u | -181 |
Giants vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Justin Verlander (SFG) | Stat | RHP Spencer Strider (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-8 | W-L | 4-7 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 4.99 / 4.87 | ERA /xERA | 3.59 / 3.93 |
| 4.25 / 4.68 | FIP / xFIP | 3.58 / 3.50 |
| 1.51 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 11% | K-BB% | 19.9% |
| 36.3% | GB% | 40.9% |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 91 | Location+ | 94 |
Tony Sartori’s Giants vs Braves Preview
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview
Father Time remains undefeated, and it has certainly caught up to Justin Verlander. He put together the worst year of his career last season and is on track to replicate that performance in 2025.
Through 16 starts, Verlander is 0-8 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor.
Entering this matchup, the right-hander ranks in the bottom third of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA) and barrel rate. These woes are likely to continue against Atlanta, a team he struggled against in the previous meeting.
In that outing, Verlander surrendered four runs on seven hits in just three innings of work. Run support will also come at a premium, given that San Francisco ranks in the bottom 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The clear hitting advantage goes to the Braves. They outrank the Giants in each of those four aforementioned categories, as well as in batting average, on-base percentage and home runs.
Not only does Atlanta possess the hitting advantage, but it has the pitching advantage as well. Spencer Strider has performed well this season, posting a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 12 starts.
His analytics are also strong, as the right-hander ranks in the top third of the league in xBA, whiff rate and strikeout rate. This success is likely to continue against San Francisco, a team against which Strider boasts a 2.16 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over the past four meetings.
Finally, following Strider is a strong bullpen. This season, the Braves’ relief corps ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP) and expected FIP (xFIP).
Giants vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
The remaining question is whether to back Atlanta on the moneyline or the run line. Considering the gap between the starting pitchers and lineups, the +118 payout for Braves -1.5 is more enticing than laying -172 on the moneyline.
San Francisco has lost by two or more runs in each of Verlander’s past six starts. Meanwhile, Atlanta has covered -1.5 in four of Strider’s past seven outings.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+118 | Play to +110)
Moneyline
I like Atlanta to win, but find more value in taking the run line.
Run Line (Spread)
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Braves run line.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Under, but I don't trust Verlander.
