The Cincinnati Reds host the San Francisco Giants on April 16, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-BA.
The Reds are favored by -124 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Giants are +106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Giants vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Giants vs Reds Prediction
- Giants vs Reds Pick: Reds ML (-130 or better)
My Giants vs Reds best bet is on Cincinnati to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Reds Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | +106 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -124 |
- Giants vs Reds spread: Giants +1.5 (-205), Reds -1.5 (+168)
- Giants vs Reds over/under: 8.5 (-112 / -108)
- Giants vs Reds moneyline: Giants +106, Reds -124
Giants vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| Landen Roupp (RHP) | Stat | Chase Burns (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.24 / 2.37 | ERA / xERA | 3.31 / 4.88 |
| 1.90 / 2.73 | FIP / xFIP | 4.82 / 4.03 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 18.8% | K-BB% | 14.3% |
| 54.3% | GB% | 40.9% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 107 | Location+ | 99 |
Giants vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
San Francisco Giants Trends, Key Players
Landen Roupp continues to improve in his third season in the big leagues, his second as a starter. He has a 3.24 ERA through his first three starts, and almost all of those runs came in one start — he blew up against the Mets but has otherwise had shutout and one-run outings.
Roupp has 18 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings, upping his strikeout rate from last season. He does an elite job at limiting hard contact and keeps the ball on the ground at a 56.5% clip. Roupp is mostly an off-speed guy, relying on his sinker, curveball, changeup, and cutter. He very rarely throws his fastball.
The Giants' offense has gotten off to a brutal start. Only the White Sox have scored fewer runs than them.
The biggest issue is that this lineup just has no pop. They have only nine home runs on the season, the only team that has failed to reach double digits.
Willy Adames and Rafael Devers are the only batters in this lineup with multiple home runs on the season. Only four regulars in this lineup have an OPS above .610. The Giants' outfield, especially, has been dreadful at the plate. They have combined for a negative WAR this season.
Cincinnati Reds Trends, Key Players
Chase Burns has some of the most elite stuff in the game. His fastball averages 98.5 MPH, regularly reaching triple digits, and he pairs that with a devastating slider. His slider is allowing opponents to hit .107 against it with a 51% whiff rate.
The former second overall pick is off to a strong start, posting a 3.31 ERA through his first three starts. He only let up one run across his first two outings before running into trouble the last time out. Burns can get himself into trouble when his command is off, and walks are still an issue.
As bad as the Giants have been at the plate, the Reds haven’t started much better. Cincinnati ranks 26th among MLB lineups in runs scored and 24th in team OPS.
However, when you look under the hood, they have been getting a bit unlucky. The Reds' xwOBA is 0.029 points higher than their current wOBA, the second-largest difference among teams. They rank in the top 10 in barrel rate and exit velocity, so at least they are hitting the ball hard.
Rookie Sal Stewart has been the clear early-MVP of the team and one of the best young hitters on the season. He has started the year with a 1.160 OPS, and his seven home runs are the second most among MLB players.
Giants vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
The Giants rank dead last in the league in home runs. They are the only team that has yet to reach double-digit dingers.
And it’s not even like they are just taking a different approach at the plate. They also rank last in walks and rank 29th in on-base percentage.
When you look at Burns, he has electric stuff. His fastball touches 100, and he has one of the best sliders in the game. Where he runs into trouble is with his command and issuing too many walks, and leaving pitches across the middle of the plate that get hit hard and end up in the seats.
Well, the Giants have the least amount of walks in the league and are very undisciplined at the plate. They swing and miss a ton, and Burns has one of the highest whiff rates in the league. San Francisco also ranks in the bottom five in hard-hit rate.
I expect Burns to have a better time getting ahead in counts, generating swings-and-misses, and keeping mistakes inside the ballpark here.
Back Burns with a great matchup on the mound, and hope the Reds' luck can improve at the plate to give him enough run support.
Pick: Reds ML (-130 or Better)
