Saturday MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: 5 Bets, Featuring Charlie Blackmon & Jose Altuve (July 2)
Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Blackmon #19 of the Colorado Rockies
- Action Network MLB analyst breaks down his five favorite PrizePicks plays for Saturday.
- He's starting off in the money with five under bets today.
- Check out his picks and analysis below.
Saturday’s MLB slate features 17 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Saturday, July 2
Taylor Ward Under 0.5 Runs + RBIs
The Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Angles today after the Astros won the first game of this series 8-1 last night. Taylor Ward could be a good fade candidate in this matchup as he is slated to go against right-hander Jose Urquidy.
Urquidy has looked dominant in each of his past two starts against a couple of powerful offenses. Against the Yankees, Urquidy allowed just one run on one hit through seven innings.
Against the Mets, Urquidy had a similar stat line as he allowed just one run on four hits through six innings. In his career against Urquidy, Ward is 0-4 with a strikeout.
I do not expect much positive regression in that stat line as Ward possesses a mere .118 xBA, .157 xSLG, and .233 xwOBA over those at-bats. Looming behind Urquidy is one of the league’s strongest bullpens as well. Since June 1st, the Astros’ relief pitching ranks 10th in the league in ERA, fourth in BA, second in SLG, and eighth in wOBA.
Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 Runs + RBIs
I am also fading a few of Houston’s hitters in this matchup as the Astros are slated to go against left-hander Patrick Sandoval. Through 12 starts this season, Sandoval is 3-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.
Sandoval has been in particularly great form as of late as he has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his past seven starts. Sandoval’s metrics suggest regression should not be looming anytime soon as he boasts a .328 xwOBA, .259 xBA, and .401 xSLG.
In two career plate appearances against Sandoval, Pena has failed to record a hit. Pena’s metrics this season are not poor but are also nothing to get excited for as he possesses a .341 xwOBA, .266 xBA, and .468 xSLG.
Jose Altuve Under 1.5 Hits + Walks
The other Astros hitter I am fading in this contest is Jose Altuve. Sandoval has had Altuve’s number in his career as the Astros second-basemen is 0-10 with two strikeouts against the Angels‘ left-hander.
Recently, Altuve has started to slip as he has gone under this total in three of his last four games (75%). In fact, Altuve’s batting average is not where he has traditionally been in his career as he possesses a .265 BA this season.
The way we would most likely lose this prop is if Altuve draws a walk or two as he has failed to record more than one hit in each of his last seven games. That being said, Sandoval has been in great form for Los Angeles, and if generating a few walks is our concern for this prop, then I think this total is worth a shot.
C.J. Cron Hitter Fantasy Score Under 9.5
The Colorado Rockies host the Arizona Diamondbacks after Arizona took Friday night’s matchup with a 9-3 final score. I am fading a few Colorado hitters in this contest as they are slated to go against left-hander Dallas Keuchel.
Reading this, you may think I am absolutely off-my-rocker to fade anyone against Keuchel, let alone when they are playing at Coors Field. But, hear me out, this number is an over-adjustment.
Through nine starts this season, Keuchel is 2-5 with a 7.93 ERA and 2.15 WHIP. While those numbers are obviously horrible, Keuchel’s metrics are not nearly as bad as he possesses a .343 xwOBA, .276 xBA, and .430 xSLG.
Those metrics are not great, but they are certainly not as poor as his surface-level stats. Arizona is giving Keuchel a second chance this season after the White Sox released him following a brutal start to the year.
In his one start for Arizona, Keuchel actually looked better and had a decent outing outside of the two-run triple he allowed to Will Castro in the second inning. In 27 career plate appearances against Keuchel, Cron possesses a mere .192 BA, .231 SLG, and .203 wOBA.
Cron’s numbers have taken a dip when facing left-handed pitchers this season as he possesses a .259 BA, .326 OBP, and .518 SLG. Cron’s bat hasn’t been hot lately as he has also gone under this total in four of his last five games (80%).
Charlie Blackmon Hitter Fantasy Score Under 9
The other Colorado hitter whom I am fading in this contest is Charlie Blackmon. While he has only faced Keuchel twice in his career, Blackmon is 0-2 with a strikeout.
This total feels like another over-adjustment as Blackmon has gone under this total in six of his last nine games (67%). In those three games where Blackmon went over this number, it was because of his slugging.
However, Blackmon’s power is not present when facing left-handers as his home run total drops from 12 to 1 and his SLG from .500 to .395 compared to facing right-handed pitchers.