The San Diego Padres host the Seattle Mariners on April 15, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Padres are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by +1.5 on the run line. The Mariners are -104 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mariners vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mariners vs Padres Prediction
- Mariners vs Padres Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-110 or better)
My Mariners vs Padres best bet is on Seattle to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Padres Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -115o / -105u | -104 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8 -115o / -105u | -112 |
- Mariners vs Padres spread: Mariners -1.5 (+150), Padres +1.5 (-184)
- Mariners vs Padres over/under: 8 (-115o/-105u)
- Mariners vs Padres moneyline: Mariners -104, Padres -112
Mariners vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Emerson Hancock (SEA) | Stat | RHP Randy Vasquez (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 2.04/2.40 | ERA /xERA | 1.02/4.23 |
| 2.43/2.86 | FIP / xFIP | 2.60/3.11 |
| 0.74 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 25.8% | K-BB% | 21.7% |
| 46.2% | GB% | 48.9% |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 109 | Location+ | 101 |
Mariners vs Padres Betting Preview, Picks
Both Emerson Hancock and Randy Vasquez may be on the verge of breakout campaigns, but it's Hancock – the former No. 6 overall pick in the 2020 draft – who has the higher ceiling.
For his career, Hancock has performed as a replacement-level starter (5.17 xERA, 4.68 xFIP, 9.4% K-BB%) with a below-average arsenal (91 Stuff+, 4.46 botERA). Still, he appears to have found himself this offseason (2.41 xERA, 2.87 xFIP, 25.8% K-BB%, 2.98 botERA) by changing his arm angle and revamping his pitch mix – putting away his changeup (down from >20% to 3.5%) and sinker (down from 32% to 16%) in favor of more four-seam fastballs (40%, career high) sliders (up from 17% to 27%) and his new cutter (12.7%).
Vasquez (career 5.48 xERA, 5.12 xFIP, 7.2% K-BB%) has also seen an uptick in performance (4.25 xERA, 3.11 xFIP, 21.7% K-BB%) but without big corresponding changes in his Stuff+ rating (94 to 98) or botERA (3.92 to 3.34). He has modified his pitch mix, increasing his four-seam fastball usage (up from 21% to 33%) and throwing it harder (948 mph) than ever before. And his swinging strike rate has more than doubled in a small sample this season, from 7.6% career to 14.3%.
I prefer the Mariners' offense in this matchup; every bat in their order projects as above-average against right-handed pitching (projected 118 wRC+), whereas the Padres have a couple of below-average hitters and project about seven points worse (111 wRC+) in the aggregate.
Seattle also has the better bullpen, too; both Jason Adam and Adrian Morejon have worked three times in five days, and aside from Miller and Morejon, Seattle has five of the top seven bullpen arms in this matchup (Jason Adam is just behind Eduard Bazardo at a 3.73 to 3.74 weighted FIP).
My edge relative to the market for Wednesday isn't as large as it was on Tuesday, so my stake is slightly reduced; still, you can bet the Mariners to -110.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-110 or better)
