The Arizona Diamondbacks host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 18, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CARD.
The Diamondbacks are -118 on the moneyline, while the Cardinals are +100. On the run line, the Cardinals are -1.5 (+165) and the Diamondbacks are +1.5. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Pick: Under 9 (-120, FanDuel), 0.54u | Bet through 9
My Cardinals vs Diamondbacks best bet is under 9 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 9 -102o / -120u | +100 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9 -102o / -120u | -118 |
- Cardinals vs Diamondbacks moneyline: Cardinals +100, Diamondbacks -118
- Cardinals vs Diamondbacks over/under: 9 (-102o / -120u)
- Cardinals vs Diamondbacks spread: Cardinals -1.5 (+164), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-200)
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
| Dustin May | Stat | Brandon Pfaadt |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 4.55 / 3.75 | ERA / xERA | 4.70 / 4.43 |
| 3.26 / 3.87 | FIP / xFIP | 4.68 / 4.40 |
| 15.7 | K-BB% | 10 |
| 44.3 | GB% | 49.1 |
| .317 | BABIP | .280 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 102 | Location+ | 99 |
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks MLB Betting Preview
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Pick, Betting Analysis
Let’s start with the run environment, which we know will be stable at 6% above average with the roof closed on Saturday (its on the Diamondbacks’ web site).
Brian Walsh is your scheduled umpire at a neutral -0.2% run reduction in games he’s called.
Now, we turn to a pair of pitchers who have both been better than ERAs exceeding four and a half (Dustin May 4.55, Brandon Pfaadt 4.70).
May has been a bit rough over the last month, though his 4.50 ERA doesn’t approach his 10.32 ERA over that stretch and his .302 xwOBA is still better than league average. On the season, he doesn’t have a single estimator reaching four, but I’ll weight the recent results more strongly and still rate him at 0.6 runs better than his actual results this season.
Pfaadt started three games, went to the pen, then the minors and has come back to start three more, allowing just three runs over 15.2 innings with a 32.7 HardHit%.
He’s mixed up his pitch usage, the largest change being increasing his fastball usage more than 10 percentage points to 36.7%, while utilizing five additional pitches between 8.4% and 17.7% of the time.
Pfaadt’s only struck out 10 of his last 60 batters, so I don’t know if the improvements will stick, but I still have his performance exactly half a run better than actual results.
That’s a pair of near league average pitchers.
We move on to a Cardinals offense that I rate perfectly average based on their 107 wRC+ on the road and 97 wRC+ against RHP, along with the projected lineup’s 92 wRC+ over the last 30 days, 109 wRC+ against RHIP and 106 wRC+ on the road.
All of this leads us to an average run total, multiplied by a 6% increase so far.
Now, we get to the portions of this matchup that have me favoring the under.
The Diamondbacks have a 94 wRC+ at home and 83 wRC+ against RHP. Their projected lineup has an 82 wRC+ over the last month and an 86 wRC+ (140 ISO) both against RHIP and at home.
This is not a good lineup by any stretch of the imagination and could be even worse if Gabriel Moreno (140 wRC+ vs RHP, 157 wRC+ L30 days) does not play the day game after a night game. The above numbers are with him projected to start.
We also have two of the best defenses in the league here with both teams combining for 39 Runs Prevented and 50 OAA with projected lineups at 37 FRV (this decreases if Moreno doesn’t play though).
The St Louis bullpen has been atrocious, averaging the 6th worst estimators in the league over the last month and BARTOLO only ranks them as the 23rd best bullpen this season. However, the Arizona bullpen has the 3rd best estimators in the league over the same month long stretch and is ranked BARTOLO’s 8th bullpen.
Nine seems too aggressive here, despite the park.
Pick: Under 9 (-120, FanDuel), 0.54u | Bet through 9
