We have a great Saturday, with a 16-game slate and plenty of bangers to bring you.
Read on for my 5 MLB Home Run Picks Today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:10 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 8:08 PM | |
  | 8:08 PM | |
  | 10:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Reds vs Rockies Prediction, Pick
I have no idea why the odds on JJ Bleday are so high here, but I'm not going to argue.
The matchup is one of the best in the league: Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano has been crushed by lefty power his entire MLB career.
The ballpark is great for power, and the weather is good for hitting today. I have the true odds for the Reds LF under +300.
Pick: JJ Bleday Home Run
| | | | |
Orioles vs Astros Prediction, Pick
Astros SP Spencer Arrighetti has been good at suppressing righty power this season, but he's due for some negative regression and has been a plus matchup in his career, allowing a 1.38 HR/9.
The ballpark is a big upgrade for Pete Alonso, and I have the true odds for the Orioles 1B at around +300.
Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run
| | | | |
Giants vs Mariners Prediction, Pick
This is a price play. The matchup is a mediocre one for Rafael Devers, with Mariners starter Bryan Woo allowing below-average home runs to lefties this season and grading out as a neutral matchup.
The ballpark is an upgrade for power compared to San Francisco, and Devers has been great recently.
I have the true odds for the Giants 1B at around +350.
Pick: Rafael Devers Home Run
| | | | |
Dodgers vs Yankees Prediction, Pick
I don't know if this game will play, but if it does, the odds are a bit too high for Trent Grisham.
The ballpark is one of the best in the league for lefty power, and the weather is a plus for hitting.
Dodgers SP Emmet Sheehan is a big plus for lefty power, giving up a 1.8 HR/9, and I have the true odds on the Yankees CF at around +300.
Pick: Trent Grisham Home Run
| | | | |
Nationals vs Athletics Prediction, Pick
The odds are far too good for C.J. Abrams given the spot.
Athletics starter J.T. Ginn has been an above-average matchup both this season and in his career for lefty power, allowing a 1.4 HR/9 this season and 1.75 HR/9 in his career.
The ballpark is one of the best in the league for power, and the weather is great for hitting, with temperatures in the high 80s and the wind blowing out at 8 MPH.
I have the true odds on the Nationals SS at around +350.
Pick: C.J. Abrams Home Run
| | | | |
