The Houston Astros host the St. Louis Cardinals on April 18, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on CARD.
The Astros are favored by -145 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are +118 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Astros Prediction
- Cardinals vs Astros Pick: Astros Over 4.5 Team Runs (-115 | Play to -140)
My Cardinals vs Astros best bet is on Houston to score five or more runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Astros Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9 -105o / -115u | +118 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -105o / -115u | -145 |
- Cardinals vs Astros moneyline: Cardinals +118, Astros -145
- Cardinals vs Astros over/under: 9 (-105o / -115u)
- Cardinals vs Astros spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-185), Astros -1.5 (+150)
Cardinals vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| RHP Andre Pallante (SL) | Stat | RHP Lance McCullers (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 4.80 / 6.05 | ERA / xERA | 5.87 / 4.47 |
| 5.09 / 5.87 | FIP / xFIP | 2.96 / 3.10 |
| 1.53 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| -1.4 | K-BB% | 18.0 |
| 49.1 | GB% | 50.0 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 91 | Location+ | 102 |
Cardinals vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
Andre Pallante averaged estimators around 4.5, well below his 5.31 ERA last year, thanks to a 62.2 LOB%.
Still, with just a 6.9% K-BB, it was his ability to generate ground balls (59.1%) and limit hard contact (39.9%), especially in the air (6.5% Barrels/BBE) that left him even marginally useful, though certainly a below-average pitcher.
Pallante actually has a better ERA (4.80), while his peripherals have completely cratered in three starts this year.
First, he’s failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in any of his three starts (-1.4 K-BB%). Action PRO projects Pallante for just 2.8 strikeouts.
The ground ball rate is down to 49.1%, but that’s more of a one-game fluke (31.8%) against the Red Sox. However, he’s also posted at least a 40% hard hit rate in each of his three starts.
While Pitching Bot thinks he’s essentially the same guy (4.99 Bot ERA to 4.80), Location+ points to his cratering with a 10-point drop (101 – 91), resulting in a 13-point drop in his Pitching+ (98 – 85).
The Houston offense is off to a hot start (123 wRC+ vs RHP), especially at home (126 wRC+). Over a larger sample, the projected lineup has a 107 wRC+ against RHP since last season.
If a predominantly right-handed lineup for Houston is a concern, batters from either side of the plate are between a .321 and .343 wOBA and xwOBA against Pallante since the start of the 2025 season.
Cardinals vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
It’s true the Cardinals have one of the better defenses in the league (projected lineup 20 Fielding Run Value), but the bullpen has been atrocious (5.30 FIP/4.82 xFIP/4.52 SIERA).
It’s only projected to be in the 70s in Houston on Saturday, but the threat of rain should keep the roof closed (as it almost always is), giving us a perfectly neutral run environment (100 Park Run Factor via Statcast).
Willie Traynor is similarly neutral behind the plate most times.
Even without Pallante’s further decline this season, I would expect the Astros to exceed their 4.5 team run total.
Pick: Astros Over 4.5 Team Runs -115, 1.04u (BetMGM | Play to -140, reduce to 0.5u above -120)
