Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Castillo Build on His Impressive Last Start?

Credit:

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Luis Castillo

Yesterday’s push required the upmost scratching and clawing to draw that result after a disastrous seven-run first inning occurred at the expense of Cole Hamels (though in his defense, that two-out dropped ball by Delino DeShields in center field was brutal and cost four runs). Let’s just move on to Sunday and complete the winning weekend.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Record: 58-37-3, +17.15 units
Yesterday’s Result: Rangers-Tigers Under 9, Hamels vs. Fiers (Push)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

 

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs | O/U: 8.5

2:20 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Luis Castillo (5-8, 5.53 ERA) vs. Jon Lester (11-2, 2.25 ERA)

There might not be a hotter pitcher in the National League right now than Jon Lester, who enters this afternoon’s assignment having won his last seven starts.

During this winning streak (that has lasted since his final start in May), Lester has let up two earned runs or fewer in all but one start, collectively churning out a 2.09 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 43 innings.

Some pressure figures to be off Lester as well after the Cubs mounted an impressive comeback yesterday to beat the Reds and snap a five-game losing streak opposite their last-place division foe. It might be a little uneasy trying to pitch your team out of a second straight sweep against an inferior opponent, but luckily that won’t be the case.

The former NLCS MVP will be in his place of preference, too, as he’s once again crafted better numbers at home than on the road. In fact, he’s 5-1 in his eight Wrigley Field assignments this year to go with a shiny 1.49 ERA and .219 batting average against. That’s been a notable trend for Lester since joining the Cubs, as he owns a 30-15 record and 3.01 ERA at “The Friendly Confines” for his career.

 

Lester’s counterpart today, Luis Castillo, also may be entering a similar groove if his last outing is any indication. That’s because the hard-throwing 25-year-old is coming off his first six-inning, one-run effort of the season. It was also the third time Castillo did not walk a batter.

In 2017 as a rookie, Castillo displayed impressive potential that could have him near or at the top of the Reds rotation for years to come. Unfortunately, he’s only slightly flashed that during the current campaign, but when he’s on his game he can be really good, with his last start being a showcase for that.

Castillo has had success against the Cubs early in his young career, going 1-0 in three meetings with a 2.16 ERA and 16 Ks in 16 innings pitched, and something even close to that could help do the trick.

With the over currently juiced, give it until first pitch to see if the line goes to 9. Regardless, I’ll still be on under 8.5 if that does not happen.

Play: UNDER 8.5/9

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