The Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays on August 20, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Rays are favored by -163 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are +152 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Rays Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Rays Pick: Rays F5 ML (-174) / Rays ML (-163) / Rays Team Total Over 4.5 (+110)
My Blue Jays vs Rays best bets are the Rays F5 and full-game moneylines, plus the over on their team total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Rays Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 7.5 -114o / -105u | +152 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -114o / -105u | -163 |
- Blue Jays vs Rays moneyline: Blue Jays +152, Rays -163
- Blue Jays vs Rays over/under: 7.5 (-114o / -105u)
- Blue Jays vs Rays spread: Blue Jays +1.5 (-152), Rays -1.5 (+125)
Blue Jays vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| Shane Bieber (RHP, TOR) | Stat | Ian Seymour (LHP, TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 9-3 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 4.99 / 6.82 | ERA / xERA | 4.11 / 3.66 |
| 5.72 / 4.88 | FIP / xFIP | 3.81 / 3.66 |
| 6.0 | K-BB% | 21.1 |
| 44.2 | GB% | 31.0 |
| .288 | BABIP | .269 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 94 | Location+ | 99 |
Blue Jays vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
Shane Bieber has now allowed two runs or less in six of his 10 game starts. But with just three quality starts and a 79 LOB%. He’s also only struck out more than 20% of the batters he’s faced in three starts and walked fewer than 10% in half.
Overall, it’s a 6.0 K-BB% with 11.5% Barrels/BBE and a 47.4 HardHit%. His 4.99 ERA is below every estimator except for a 4.88 xFIP. Batters from either side of the plate have exceeded a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, with RHBs at .385 and .413, respectively.
That’s where this gets even trickier than the normal day game after a night game hijinks. BARTOLO is going to naturally assume Tampa Bay’s standard lineup against RHBs, but one of the sharpest organizations in the league is more likely to jam more RHBs against Bieber's reverse split than most teams, starting with Nick Fortes, who did not catch Wednesday night’s game.
For now, BARTOLO’s projected lineup (with Fores in for Hicks) averages a 113 wRC+ against RHP, with Taylor Walls (84) the low man and the only one below 90. This lineup also averages a 121 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 117 on the road. This is going to be a tough spot for Bieber, regardless of who’s in the lineup.
The Blue Jays do have a great defense going for them, with 14 of their projected 22 FRV going to Andres Gimenez and another eight to Alejandro Kirk, who didn’t catch on Wednesday night.
BARTOLO projects a middle-of-the-league bullpen in Toronto (14th, 3.96 wFIP), but over the last month, they are 24th in team estimators (4.14 FIP, 4.71 xFIP, 4.59 SIERA).
Ian Seymour stretched out to six innings for the first time on June 25th, following an opener. His next two games were starts. He struck out 27 of the 65 batters he faced in those three outings, but then regressed a bit in his next two starts, which were shorter than the two following relief appearances (25%).
However, Seymour has taken off again, striking out 25 of 76 batters in three August starts.
In 65.1 innings since his first of more than two innings, Seymour is running a 24.9 K-BB%, while allowing 10.4% Barrels/BBE, but with just a 38.4 HardHit%.
BARTOLO’s projected Toronto lineup for Thursday is averaging a perfectly average 100 wRC+ against LHP, but with just a .123 ISO. That includes only Charles McAdoo (.182) and Kazuma Okamoto (.200) above .128. The former comes by that number in just 25 PA against southpaws. This lineup also averages just an 89 wRC+ on the road.
The projected Tampa Bay defense is lacking, but I surmise the Rays are fine with Junior Caminero’s -10 FRV, while the rest of the lineup is 1 FRV above average.
The Tampa Bay relief unit has the 10th-best estimators in the league over the last 30 days (4.13 FIP, 3.71 xFIP, 3.68 SIERA), while BARTOLO ranks them 7th best (3.80 wFIP).
Blue Jays vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
Bieber’s numbers through one-third of a full season of starts have done little to convince me he’s a true sub-five talent right now. That doesn’t mean he won’t ever be again, but right now, I have Seymour the clear superior pitcher by around a run and a half.
I also have the Tampa Bay offense ahead of Toronto by 20 points (wRC+) for Thursday.
The Blue Jays do gain something back defensively, their only edge in this game, but the Rays even project an 8 BRR (Base Running Runs) edge and have the better bullpen whether you’re using L30-day estimators or BARTOLO’s rankings.
The Rays are already a healthy favorite in this game, but it still doesn't seem enough. I’m splitting three bets on the F5, full game, and team total.
Pick: Rays (F5) -174, 0.88u | Bet to -220, Rays -163, 0.88u | Bet to -215, Rays TT Over 4.5 (+110), 0.5u | Bet to -120 (DraftKings)
