MLB Trade Deadline: How the Trevor Bauer Deal Shifted World Series Odds


Credit: Denny Medley, USA Today Sports.

  • On Tuesday night, the Indians traded Trevor Bauer to Cincinnati as part of a three-team deal along with the Padres.
  • Cleveland's World Series odds remained at +1600, while Cincinnati improved from +50000 to +20000.

The last ball Trevor Bauer threw during a game with the Indians was over the center field fence — the eccentric right-hander has been dealt 250 miles southwest to Cincinnati as part of a three-team deal.

Though Bauer, the sixth-place finisher in the AL Cy Young last year, could certainly have helped the Indians catch the Twins down the stretch, Cleveland has decided to part ways with him.

In return, they’ve acquired two powerful outfield bats, in addition to a young left-handed pitcher.

Bauer has taken a step back this year after posting career bests in several key statistical categories in 2018:

  • 2018: 2.21 ERA, 11.34 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 0.46 HR/9
  • 2019: 3.79 ERA, 10.63 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9

If you’re wondering whether this would be considered “buying” or “selling” on Cleveland’s part, the oddsmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook consider it neither, as their World Series odds remain at 16-1.

  • Indians: remain at +1600
  • Reds: +50000 to +20000
  • Padres: remain at+50000

At just 4.06 runs allowed per game, the Indians’ pitching staff was ranked T-3 in baseball entering Wednesday. Meanwhile, their offense was middle of the pack at 4.66 runs scored per game. Franmil Reyes is tied for 10th in the MLB with 27 home runs, while Yasiel Puig had 22 jacks for the Reds. Cleveland ranked 19th in home runs entering Tuesday night.

Cincinnati’s World Series odds remain long, but Bauer gives the Reds another high-caliber arm to go with Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, who has enjoyed a resurgence since moving from New York to Ohio. The Reds are 6.5 games back in both the NL Central and in the race for the wild card.

San Diego appears to be looking ahead to the future, which may be the right move given the team’s young talent and loaded farm system. Taylor Trammell was Cincinnati’s top prospect, which gives the Padres another high-potential stud for the coming years.

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