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Twins vs Yankees MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Runs in Hitter-friendly New York (Monday, September 5)

Twins vs Yankees MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Runs in Hitter-friendly New York (Monday, September 5) article feature image
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Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Minnesota Twins pitcher Chris Archer

  • Minnesota and New York kick off a four-game series on Monday.
  • Neither starting pitcher has been especially effective in recent outings.
  • Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and why he's targeting the total for the afternoon game.

Twins vs. Yankees Odds

Twins Odds +135
Yankees Odds -165
Over/Under 8 (-115 / -105)
Time 1:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

New York will return home to Yankee Stadium after a crucial weekend set in Tampa, where the team avoided a disastrous series sweep with Sunday’s nail-biting 2-1 victory.

The Twins remain in the thick of a division race themselves and enter this four-game series tied atop the lowly AL Central with 68 wins.

Minnesota will send Chris Archer to the mound for the start on Monday. He’s struggled considerably of late and may feel like a breath of fresh air to the Yankees lineup after a weekend in Tampa.

The Yankees will counter with Jameson Taillon, who has been far from dominant in his own right throughout the 2022 season.

Can the Yankees’ offense wake up Monday at home?

Can Twins’ Offense Wake Up?

Chris Archer has simply not been very good over the past three seasons, and it certainly does not seem like any notable change in form is on the horizon.

Archer posted a 5.74 ERA in August and has now managed a 6.98 ERA post-All-Star break.

He rates poorly in essentially every notable public analytic, and it certainly seems that Archer has been far from unlucky to hold an ERA above 4.50 for the third consecutive season.

Hitters have chased just 14% of Archer’s fastballs out of the zone this season, which is the lowest mark in the league among pitchers who have thrown more than 65 innings. It’s a concern entering a matchup at Yankee Stadium.

Archer has also thrown his slider a ton: 44% of the time, which could also be an issue looking toward a matchup against a Yankees side that has the best pitch value in baseball versus the slider this season at +14.8.

It’s not really anything new for the Twins to fight through the loss of Byron Buxton, but sadly that is the current situation as Minnesota tries to steal the Central crown.

Minnesota has remained a middle-of-the-pack offense over the last 30 days, with a wRC+ of 99 from a middling BABIP of .287.

Minnesota has also been far more effective in matchups against right-handed pitching, with its team wRC+ of 112 going as the fifth-best mark in the league, compared to its far worse numbers versus lefties.

Monthlong Slump for Yankees

Even coming from someone who is far from a Yankees supporter, it’s hard for me to see how this offense has regressed so significantly from the start of the season, even if opposing staffs are clearly figuring out how to pitch this team more effectively.

The Yankees’ struggles have been widely covered, but the numbers from the last 30 days truly are shocking: New York has hit to a wRC+ of just 74, with an OPS of just .603.

As you might expect, the Yankees average on balls in play has dipped significantly during that time frame, and as a team the Yankees have hit to a fourth-lowest BABIP of just .259.

And while there certainly seems to be some dead weight in the bottom third of the lineup for New York, when the average on batted balls bumps back up to a more standard mark, the offense should look somewhat more respectable.

Jameson Taillon has pitched to a steady xERA of 4.18 this season but has seen his overall results dipping down the stretch.

Taillon has pitched to a 4.24 ERA since the All-Star break and has seen his xwoba rise during that span, as well.

Taillon has allowed a .442 slugging percentage on the season, which is the ninth-worst mark among starters who have pitched more than 130 innings this season.

Walking next to no batters surely helps – or, over his last four outings, literally zero batters – but the amount of hard contact allowed is surely still concerning for the once-dominant 30-year-old.

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Twins-Yankees Pick

Even if the Yankees offense may be far more flawed than we thought early on this season, it should still be able to take advantage of a matchup with Chris Archer at Yankee Stadium, and I expect a strong run total from New York Monday.

Jameson Taillon has been a middle-of-the-pack starter in 2022 in the midst of some very average form of late, and Minnesota’s offense should be able to build on Sunday’s crucial victory in this matchup.

At worst I think both of these offenses are still closer to middle of the pack moving forward, and considering the starters on the mound in a hitter-friendly ballpark I feel this game total should be sitting at 8.5 as opposed to 8.

Pick: Over 8 -115 (Play to -120)

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