The New York Yankees host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 21, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Yankees are favored by -148 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +126 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Yankees Prediction
- Pirates vs Yankees Pick: Pirates (+126), 1u | Bet to +119
My Pirates vs Yankees best bet is on Pittsburgh to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Yankees Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 -114o / -106u | +126 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9 -114o / -106u | -148 |
- Pirates vs Yankees moneyline: Pirates +126, Yankees -148
- Pirates vs Yankees over/under: 9 (-114o / -106u)
- Pirates vs Yankees spread: Pirates +1.5 (-170), Yankees -1.5 (+140)
Pirates vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| Bubba Chandler (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Will Warren (RHP, NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-8 | W-L | 7-4 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 4.77 / 4.14 | ERA / xERA | 4.03 / 4.45 |
| 4.59 / 5.13 | FIP / xFIP | 4.10 / 3.95 |
| 7.1 | K-BB% | 14.7 |
| 38.0 | GB% | 42.5 |
| .271 | BABIP | .307 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 100 | Location+ | 105 |
Pirates vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Bubba Chandler was expected to be the next big thing in Pittsburgh behind Paul Skenes and a Rookie of the Year favorite for many, but here we are 18 starts and 94.1 innings in, and he’s sitting there with a 7.1 K-BB%.
He’s neither missed bats at an above-average rate (20.2 K%, 10.1 SwStr%), nor even consistently been able to find the plate (13.1%). Heck, he hasn’t even been able to get called strikes at an average rate (14.4%).
It’s really a shame because the contact profile has been excellent. With a 37.5 HardHit% and allowing just 6.5% Barrels/BBE, Chandler is sporting a league-average 4.13 xERA even with the poor peripherals.
His 4.77 ERA is within one-third of a run of his 5.07 SIERA, 5.11 xFIP and 4.58 FIP.
Ten of his 18 barrels have left the yard, though he hasn’t allowed a home run to any RHB at home, the toughest park in the league for right-handed power, and 80% of his home runs overall have been surrendered to LHBs.
He’s throwing first-pitch strikes 61.8% of the time, which is better than league average (61.2%), but from there, it appears to go south with batters chasing only 29% of the time (32.7% is average).
Chandler has held RHBs to within two points of a .290 wOBA and xwOBA, but has still only struck them out 21.3% of the time. LHBs have a .346 wOBA and .336 xwOBA against him, and he’ll likely see more than two-thirds of the Yankee lineup from that side.
He’s basically four-seam, slider to RHBs two-thirds of the time, mixing in sinkers, sweepers and changeups around 10% of the time each. Against LHBs, it’s been four-seam (51%), changeup (19%) or slider (17%).
A 3.40 Bot ERA and 106 Pitching+ suggest Chandler should be seeing much better results. His fastball has a 65 botStf grade, the best stuff grade on any of his pitches from either system. It comes in with 2.6 inches more iVB than the average fastball with an elite height-adjusted vertical approach angle (1.4), which makes it play great even with average extension (6.6 feet), but it has nearly average command grades.
In fact, almost all of his pitches have above-average stuff grades (58 PitchingBot, 104 Stuff+ overall) with average command grades (53 PB, 100 L+), which really makes it perplexing that he’s walking so many batters and missing so few bats.
Batters shouldn’t have a .339 wOBA and .344 xwOBA against a fastball with those characteristics, unless he’s falling behind in counts and they’re sitting on it. The issue with his slider (not sweeper) is that batters have a .353 wOBA against it, when they also have just a .266 xwOBA. With a 31.4 Whiff% and 14.5 SwStr% plus 53.2% of the contact against it on the ground, it may not be his fault.
The key here would appear to be getting ahead in the count and being able to throw secondary pitches for strikes when he needs to.
Let’s not overstate the Yankees offense he’ll be facing, though. They did pop Braxton Ashcraft for eight runs on Monday night, but the lineup (which is the same one projected for Tuesday) came into the game with just a 101 wRC+ against RHIP and 75 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Trent Grisham and Ben Rice are the only two batters in that lineup above a 100 wRC+ in both of those instances.
They are a top-three offense against sliders and changeups, but only Rice stands out strongly against Chandler’s overall mix, as he and Goldschmidt have hammered fastballs.
It’s merely an average spot.
Chandler has held runners well with 2 Net Bases Prevented. They’ve only taken off on 1% of opportunities against him. Henry Davis has been exceptional at throwing them out (47 CS%, 3 CS Above Average).
The Pirates should be able to hold the running game in check, despite Jazz Chisholm’s 26 stolen bases and 2 Runs via Stolen Bases (Statcast).
While the Pittsburgh defense has been bottom third of the league at -9 Runs Prevented and -11 OAA, the projected lineup actually comes in at 1 FRV (Fielding Run Value), thanks to Brandon Lowe (6) and despite Bryan Reynolds (-4), Ryan O’Hearn (-3) and Nick Gonzales (-2), who have contributed to some suspect outfield defense overall.
The Pirates bullpen has smack middle-of-the-league estimators over the last 30 days, with their 4.59 FIP, 4.11 xFIP and 3.91 SIERA aligned well with their 4.38 ERA during this period. BARTOLO ranks them 25th overall this season, though they are well rested since the break.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Will Warren started the season red hot with a 2.39 ERA, 3.55 xERA, 2.64 xFIP, 25 K-BB%, 47.4 GB%, 7.2% Barrels/BBE and 42.3 HardHit% through his first seven starts.
He posted a league-leading 1.84 Bot ERA and 122 Pitching+. It seemed like this was his breakout.
In 12 starts since: 5.04 ERA, 5.01 xERA, 4.74 xFIP, 9 K-BB%, 40 GB%, 7.0% Barrels/BBE and 38.5 HardHit%.
The contact profile has slightly improved, but his pitch modeling dropped to a 3.77 Bot ERA and 104 Pitching+, which are still fine, but nowhere near the dominant measurements he initially put up.
Batters from either side of the plate have exceeded a .340 wOBA against him since May 6th. His swinging strike never actually changed much, going from 9.6% to 8.8%.
Pitching Bot shows all of Warren’s pitches falling off since May, while Pitching+ sees more of a downturn for the four-seamer and sinker than his other pitches.
Overall, Warren’s 4.03 ERA is now within half a run of all his non-pitch modeling indicators and below all of them except for a 3.94 xFIP.
Warren is fastball, sinker, sweeper 98% of the time to RHBs and doubles up on his four-seam to LHBs (41%), with the sinker, sweeper and changeup all coming in between 10-20% of the time.
The fastball has just average characteristics (iVB, HAVAA, extension) and has some concerning results: 121 wRC+, 31.7 GB%, 9.2 SwStr%, 9.8% Barrels/BBE, 43.1 HardHit%.
The sinker hasn’t been much better, but at least it stays on the ground.
The projected Pittsburgh lineup Warren will face averages a 116 wRC+ against RHP and 136 wRC+ over the last 30 days with a 105 wRC+ on the road.
They have been the best offense in the league against fastballs (0.86 wFA/C) and top five against sinkers (0.13 wSI/C). Bryan Reynolds and Esmerlyn Valdez measure up best against Warren’s arsenal, though the majority of the lineup matches up well against him from a run value standpoint.
Valdez (140 wRC+, .300 ISO vs RHP) should just ditch the Es in his first name because his bat has been magical. No major league team has a higher wRC+ against RHP than the Pittsburgh Pirates (116).
Will Warren (4 Net Bases Prevented) is very difficult to run on. In fact, if Statcast is right, nobody has attempted to this year, which gives Wells, one of the worst throwing catchers in the league (12 CS%, 25 eCS%, -3 CSAA), a big break.
The Pirates are eighth in the league in stolen bases with 89, though half of those stolen bases are on the IL, so I wouldn’t expect them to do much stealing here.
The Yankees defense is break-even on a team level (1 Run Prevented & OAA), but the projected lineup has 6 FRV. Led by Cody Bellinger’s 6 FRV, only Rice (-4), Caballero (-2), Dominguez (-2) and Grisham (-1) have been below average.
The Yankees bullpen is just two spots ahead of the Pirates over the last 30 days with a 3.75 FIP, 4.51 xFIP and 4.12 SIERA, well above their league-leading 2.41 ERA over this span. A .226 BABIP will do that.
BARTOLO ranks this relief unit the 11th best in the league. However, with a doubleheader against the Dodgers on Sunday and an early exit from Weathers on Monday, it’s already a group stretched thin less than a week after the break.
Pirates vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
Unfortunately, all of the above could be for naught, as we’re looking at a decent chance of rain on Tuesday in the Bronx. If they do play, the forecast is in the 70s with around a 10 mph wind out towards left.
Scheduled home plate umpire Quinn Wolcott increases run scoring by 1.4%.
These pitchers are really too volatile to draw a confident conclusion. If we’re going by overall season numbers, Warren has a half-run edge. Chandler probably has the more impressive stuff, but Warren has at least put it together for part of the season.
Both have ERAs and SIERAs above four and a half over the last month, but Chandler has allowed a .303 xwOBA to Warren’s .404 over that stretch.
I’m giving a clear offensive edge to the Pirates, somewhere between 15-20 points (wRC+). Valdez will come down to Earth, but who do you really trust for the Yankees to remain a firmly above-average bat going forward? Maybe Rice? The Pirates have done this for 100 games now.
Small defensive edge (5 FRV by projected lineups) to the Yankees with base running a wash.
I’m calling bullpens even too because even though BARTOLO sees a 14-team 0.41 wFIP run gap, L30-day estimators are similar and the Pirates are much better rested. The Yankees had six relievers throw 20+ pitches on Sunday and then used four more for 11-17 pitches on Monday.
I have this game closer to 9.5 runs than the market total of 9, but don’t deem it to be actionable, especially with weather concerns.
I do have this game close to even and therefore favor the Pirates here in a market that has already moved towards them while writing this (+132 to +126).
I would drop to half a unit at +125 and play it to +119.
Pick: Pirates +126 (FanDuel), 1u | Bet to +119
