We have a full 15-game slate on this Dinger Tuesday, starting with Dodgers vs Phillies at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 PM ET, and closing with Reds vs Mariners at T-Mobile Park at 9:40 PM ET.
Read on for our 4 MLB Best Bets Today for Tuesday, July 21.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:05 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 8:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jon Anderson's Dodgers vs Phillies Best Bet
By Jon Anderson
Let's see what the projection says:
- Zack Wheeler's Projection: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2.6 ER, 7.5 SO, 1.9 BB
- Justin Wrobleski's Projection: 5.2 IP, 5.8 H, 2.7 ER, 5.2 SO, 1.2 BB
The advanced models I have are pointing to under 8.5 in this one. I simmed the game on my sim tool, and we're getting an average of just 7.5 runs.
Wrobleski matches up very well with the Phillies, while Wheeler seems untouchable right now.
These bullpens rank fourth (LAD) and seventh (PHI), so the hitters have nine tough innings ahead of them.
I can't even find a single hitter that profiles well in this matchup. It looks like all of these guys are just in down spots. So it's all about pitching in this one.
I'm keeping my pick very simple.
Read Anderson's full Dodgers vs Phillies betting preview here:
Pick: Under 8.5 (-120 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Pirates vs Yankees Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Unfortunately, all of the above could be for naught, as we’re looking at a decent chance of rain on Tuesday in the Bronx. If they do play, the forecast is in the 70s with around a 10 MPH wind out towards left.
Scheduled home plate umpire Quinn Wolcott increases run scoring by 1.4%.
These pitchers are really too volatile to draw a confident conclusion. If we’re going by overall season numbers, Warren has a half-run edge. Chandler probably has the more impressive stuff, but Warren has at least put it together for part of the season.
Both have ERAs and SIERAs above four and a half over the last month, but Chandler has allowed a .303 xwOBA to Warren’s .404 over that stretch.
I’m giving a clear offensive edge to the Pirates, somewhere between 15-20 points (wRC+). Esmerlyn Valdez will come down to Earth, but who do you really trust for the Yankees to remain a firmly above-average bat going forward? Maybe Ben Rice? The Pirates have done this for 100 games now.
Small defensive edge (5 FRV by projected lineups) to the Yankees with base running a wash.
I’m calling bullpens even too because even though BARTOLO sees a 14-team 0.41 wFIP run gap, L30-day estimators are similar and the Pirates are much better rested. The Yankees had six relievers throw 20-plus pitches on Sunday and then used four more for 11-17 pitches on Monday.
I have this game closer to 9.5 runs than the market total of 9, but don’t deem it to be actionable, especially with weather concerns.
I do have this game close to even and therefore favor the Pirates here in a market that has already moved towards them while writing this (+132 to +126).
I would drop to half a unit at +125 and play it to +119.
Read Trollo's full Pirates vs Yankees betting preview here:
Pick: Pirates ML (+119 or Better)
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Ryan Minion's Padres vs Braves Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
For the first leg of our SGP for Tuesday night, I favor backing the Braves on the moneyline in a matchup they should have a considerable edge on the mound.
In his first 19 outings on the mound in 2026, the Padres’ Walker Buehler has recorded an abysmal 5.36 ERA and surrendered a whopping 53 earned runs across 89 innings.
Despite vast success early in his career, Buehler has dealt with several injuries in recent years, most notably undergoing Tommy John surgery toward the end of 2022.
Since recovering from surgery, Buehler has yet to record a sub-4.00 ERA and has been unable to revert to his previous elite form.
While he has been quite volatile on the mound over the first half of this season, the Braves’ Reynaldo Lopez has been a model of consistency.
In 22 appearances on the mound, having been used as both a starter and in relief, Lopez has recorded a solid 3.50 ERA along with a rather efficient 1.26 WHIP as well.
In addition to Atlanta’s substantial pitching edge on Tuesday night, I am far higher on the Braves, especially after betting them to win the World Series prior to the start of the season.
Given the Braves are also playing at home, where they hold a 29-19 record, this is a spot I heavily favor Atlanta.
Read Minion's full Padres vs Braves betting preview here:
Pick: Braves ML (-150 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Nationals vs Rockies Best Bet
I was scrolling through our new PRO baseball betting tool, BARTOLO, when I came across this game projection here:
You’re telling me the hard-hitting Nationals are playing at Coors Field against Michael Lorenzen (6.22 ERA, 5.56 xERA, 87 Stuff+) in 90-degree weather with double-digit winds blowing out toward left field?
They might put up 15 runs in this alone.
However, Miles Mikolas is one of Washington’s worst starting pitchers (5.53 ERA, 4.99 xERA, 90 Stuff+), and Colorado’s offense is nothing to scoff at — Zerillo projects the Rockies with a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching behind the hard-hitting Hunter Goodman and six other above-average hitters.
Even better, Zerillo power rates these bullpens as the two worst in MLB.
I’m ready for fireworks in this matchup.
Pick: Over 13.5 (+100 or Better)
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Kev Mahserejian's Reds vs Mariners Best Bet
The Mariners seldom have a pitching disadvantage, yet there is a gap between them and the Reds today. Chase Burns is one of the best starters in baseball. He has leaped from a budding, young SP in 2025 to an ace in 2026.
Meanwhile, the Mariners are starting former frontline starter Luis Castillo today. Castillo's season is a classic "tale of two halves".
First 9 outings: 6.34 ERA, 6.08 xERA, 4.50 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, 34.1% GB rate
Last 9 outings: 3.50 ERA, 3.23 xERA, 4.33 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 40.9% GB rate
Castillo is not striking out more batters or walking fewer, but he is generating weaker contact and more ground balls.
Today's bet is leaning on this recent trend, along with Chase Burns' stretch since June 27. He has allowed 10 runs in 17 innings during this span, with a season-high six walks in his last start.
Also, Seattle's offense is much better against RHP this season (105 wRC+) than the Reds (86 wRC+). The Reds' lineup cannot start more than five left-handed hitters, making them vulnerable against RHP.
With at least four right-handed bats in the Reds' lineup, Castillo can leverage his excellent splits against RHH (19.3% K-BB, 3.23 xFIP) and his favorable home splits to eat innings today.
Even with Julio Rodriguez potentially injured, the Mariners have the far better offense and bullpen, giving them a good shot to win if Castillo's start is respectable.
Read Kev's full Reds vs Mariners betting preview here:
Pick: Mariners ML (-120 or Better)
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