The New York Mets host the Washington Nationals on April 30, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Mets are favored by -210 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +176 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Mets Prediction
- Nationals vs Mets Pick: Over 7.5
My Nationals vs Mets best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Mets Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -128 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +176 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +106 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -210 |
- Nationals vs Mets moneyline: Nationals +176, Mets -210
- Nationals vs Mets over/under: 7.5 (-122o / -100u)
- Nationals vs Mets spread: Mets -1.5 (+106), Nationals +1.5 (-128)
Nationals vs Mets Pitchers
| Miles Mikolas (RHP, WSN) | Stat | Freddy Peralta (RHP, NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | W-L | 1-3 |
| -0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 8.49 / 5.45 | ERA / xERA | 3.90 / 3.57 |
| 6.94 / 5.01 | FIP / xFIP | 3.90 / 3.71 |
| 5.4% | K-BB% | 16.5% |
| 45.2% | GB% | 42.4% |
| .333 | BABIP | .262 |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 113 | Location+ | 106 |
Nationals vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
The Washington Nationals hand the ball to right-hander Miles Mikolas in this Thursday matinee against the New York Mets.
At 37-years-old, it’s safe to say that Mikolas’ best years are behind him, particularly evident by his play this season. Through six appearances on the mound, Mikolas is 0-3 with a fade-worthy 8.49 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor, given that the right-hander ranks in the bottom quarter of qualified pitchers in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, and barrel rate.
These woes are likely to continue against New York, a team he has struggled against. In the past five head-to-head meetings, Mikolas is 1-3 with an 8.28 ERA.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The good news for Mikolas is that he could receive some solid run support in this matchup.
Among MLB lineups, Washington ranks fourth in runs scored per game, ninth in hits per game, and 12th in home runs.
That success at the plate could continue against right-hander Freddy Peralta, who takes the mound for the Mets.
It’s still early in the season, but the change of scenery from Milwaukee to New York has not gone smoothly for Peralta. Through his first six starts with the Mets, the right-hander is 1-3 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.
While still serviceable, those marks would be his worst of the decade.
Nationals vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
It is a small sample size, and Peralta will likely be fine in the long run, but there should be some concern about his fastball velocity, which is at its lowest point in nearly four years.
Additionally, like Mikolas, Peralta has a poor track record against Thursday’s opponent. In eight career appearances against the Nationals, he’s posted a 5.82 ERA.
Even if Peralta delivers a stronger outing, it’s difficult to rely on New York closer Devin Williams to get the job done. Through 10 appearances this season, Williams has a 9.00 ERA and a 2.50 WHIP.
Pick: Over 7.5
