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White Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Lucas Giolito, South Siders Take Second Game? (May 4)

White Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Lucas Giolito, South Siders Take Second Game? (May 4) article feature image
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Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito

  • Are the White Sox undervalued against the cross-town rival Cubs on Wednesday night?
  • Our baseball betting analyst thinks so. Find his picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Cubs based on the latest odds below.

White Sox vs. Cubs Odds

White Sox Odds -144
Cubs Odds +134
Over/Under 7
Time 7:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via WynnBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The White Sox are beginning to pick things up, coming into Wednesday’s matchup on a mini heater after taking the first of two games against their cross-town rivals. Will the Cubs have an answer on Wednesday? Or could it be more of the same?

Let’s have a look at this matchup.

Chicago White Sox

Just a week after snapping a disastrous eight-loss streak, the White Sox have now won three of four, taking the first of a two-game set with their cross-town rivals. Tuesday’s pitching matchup was stacked in the White Sox’s favor, and it sure seems like Wednesday’s will, as well.

The South Siders will trot out Lucas Giolito, who has pitched to a 2.57 ERA in 14 innings across three starts. While he’s not exactly on a Cy Young pace and his hard-hit rate has ballooned to 43.3%, Giolito has still flashed that strikeout stuff that’s made him such a special pitcher in recent years. In striking out 37.9% of the batters he’s faced, Giolito is once again inside the league’s top 10 and has rebounded after a disappointing 28% strikeout rate in 2021.

The White Sox may be 24th in wRC+, but they seem to be the victims of bad luck. Not only are they fourth in hard-hit rate, they’re eighth in the league with a .344 xwOBA — that is 61 points lower than their actual wOBA, creating the biggest difference in Major League Baseball.

Similarly, they’re hitting .219 with a .263 expected batting average. Eventually, things should turn in their favor.

Chicago Cubs

Now that we’ve determined the White Sox are scorching the ball, a nightmare matchup presents itself here for the Cubs.

The Cubs are set to start Kyle Hendricks, who has long pitched to contact. While he’s figured out how to induce soft ground balls in the past, he has been a disaster in recent years. This season in particular, he’s allowing hard-hit balls at a 20.8% rate, which is his highest number since Statcast started tracking such things.

On top of that, he’s walked 10% of the batters he’s faced — something we’ve rarely seen from Hendricks. Once a present-day Greg Maddux, Hendricks has lost his touch on the hill and doesn’t seem capable of commanding the strike zone and getting outs with his sinker.

On the other side of the spectrum is the Cubs offense, which ranks 24th in expected batting average and is one of the few teams that has not seen any sort of bad luck when it comes to their hard-hit balls not falling for hits. What you see is what you get, and right now that is a team that has tumbled down the ranks in the bigs.

Once a top-five team in wRC+, the Cubs are now down in 13th — and falling fast.

White Sox-Cubs Pick

The White Sox are definitely a better team than the Cubs, despite what the records would tell you. When the season is over, the two will be separated by far more than one win. The White Sox have some serious exit velocity machines in their lineup, and the Cubs very few major-league caliber hitters.

With that sort of tilt in the lineups, the pitching matchup sends this one over the top for me. I know there are plenty of White Sox skeptics out there, but this line really needs to be hit hard.

Pick: White Sox -144

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