White Sox vs Mets Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Tuesday, July 18

White Sox vs Mets Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Tuesday, July 18 article feature image

Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Carrasco.

White Sox vs. Mets Odds

Tuesday, July 18
7:10 PM
White Sox Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
+100 / -122
Mets Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
+100 / -122
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

The White Sox head to New York to take on the Mets at Citi Field on Tuesday, with Lucas Giolito and Carlos Carrasco squaring off in the starting pitching matchup.

Both teams have been scuffling all season, but both also won their most recent game on Sunday against a top-tier team.

Giolito and Carrasco have also been better of late, and with a pair of offenses that are prone to struggling, runs may be at a premium, especially in the first five innings.

Chicago White Sox

After a disappointing 2022, Lucas Giolito has, at least on the surface, returned to form in 2023.

His ERA from his three best seasons …

2019: 3.41
2020: 3.48
2021: 3.53

Last season, it was 4.90, but it's back down to 3.45 thus far in 2023. However, his peripherals suggest he is closer to the 2022 version than his three-year prime.

Of course, that is not lost on the market as books are currently pricing him somewhere between the peak and valley.

What's been impressive about Giolito this season is that he's avoided blowup outings. He's really only had two bad starts, one of which came in his second outing of the campaign.

Giolito's a low-ceiling, high-floor pitcher right now, and with the Mets' perpetually mid offense on deck on Tuesday, he seems very likely to hit right around that 50th-percentile outcome.

The White Sox offense, meanwhile, has been dreadful against righties.

Their 84 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in 2023 ranks 28th, above only their lowly division mates (Detroit and Kansas City). That number includes Eloy Jimenez, whose 111 wRC+ against righties is second-best among White Sox regulars.

Mets starter Carlos Carrasco really only has to worry about Luis Robert.

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New York Mets

Speaking of Carrasco, while his season-long numbers — both surface and peripheral — are pretty heinous, his most recent start was easily his best of the season.

He went eight shutout innings against the Diamondbacks, allowing just three hits and striking out four (to just one walk). He was sharp all around, allowing much softer contact than he has in most games, with his fastball registering at near peak speeds.

In fact, Carrasco's fastball velocity has impressively been on the uptick:

That's great news for the second half and likely why his ERA has been trending down, albeit rather slowly. After a rough start to the season, his ERA is at 3.61 over his last 42 1/3 innings. His FIP, though, is concerning at 5.50.

Still, I like the edge on the under given Carrasco's velocity increase along with the absolutely putrid White Sox offense.

White Sox vs. Mets Betting Pick

While I am leaning to the under, I want to be sure to target the first five innings.

Though both teams are coming off an off-day, these are two of the worst bullpens in baseball, and among the more volatile ones at that.

As such, I am leaning toward under 5.5 for the first five innings — make sure to shop around for the best number.

Lean: Under 5.5 First Five Innings (-105; bet365)

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