The New York Yankees (80-61) and San Diego Padres (74-67) meet tonight, with the game set to start at 7:15 p.m. EDT at Petco Park in San Diego, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on FOX and can be traded on Kalshi.
The Yankees are favored by -1.5 against the spread, with the over/under set at 7.5. The Padres are the preferred trading option, while the Padres will be looking to pull off an upset.
Let's get into my Yankees vs. Padres predictions and picks.
Yankees vs. Padres Predictions, Odds
Yankees vs. Padres Pick
Yankees vs. Padres Pick: Robbie Ray 6+ Strikeouts
Yankees vs. Padres Analysis, Prediction
We'll head to San Diego to take the over on another veteran lefty's punchouts. That is Robbie Ray, who came to San Diego from the Giants at the trade deadline. Since joining the Padres, Ray has been stout, allowing two or fewer runs in four of his five starts.
Ray boasts a brilliant 3.14 ERA, but his 4.65 xERA and 4.64 FIP indicate that he's one of the luckier pitchers in the league. On the more concerning side, Ray has a 7.61 K/9, the lowest since his rookie season in 2014.
The change in strikeouts centers around Ray wanting to pitch deeper into games. He added a sinker to his arsenal, and it's led to strong results, but fewer strikeouts. That'll change in this matchup.
I mentioned in the above section that Pittsburgh leads the league in strikeout rate since August, but the team right behind them is the Yankees (25.8%).
The current iteration of the Yankees is very left-handed heavy. Aaron Boone will likely deploy Paul Goldschmidt at first base and Amed Rosario at third, as he does against most lefties. Rosario strikes out less than Ryan McMahon by 11%, and Goldschmidt strikes out 3% more than Luis Garcia Jr., who'll sit.
What stands out to me here is that Ray has a very low strikeout total due to his different approach. But the Yankees have struck out even against non-strikeout arms. That's because six of their nine expected starters are candidates to go down on strikes: Spencer Jones (33%), Austin Wells (28%), Heliot Ramos (27%), George Lombard Jr. (27%), Ben Rice (26%), Jazz Chisholm (26%)
With all of these strikeout options, Ray should find his way to six strikeouts if he goes five or six innings.
Lastly, we'll follow a trend here with a pitcher who generates ground balls 47% of the time.
New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Trade: Robbie Ray 6+ Strikeouts
