The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Washington Nationals on September 5, 2026. First pitch from UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA.
The Dodgers are favored by -225 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +186 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Dodgers Prediction
- Nationals vs Dodgers Pick: Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+118, 0.5u | Bet to 100), Under 8 (-115, 0.58u | Bet through 8)
My Nationals vs Dodgers best bet is a same-game parlay pairing Cavalli to record 6+ strikeouts with under 8 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Dodgers Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -100 | 7.5 -117o / -104u | +186 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 7.5 -117o / -104u | -225 |
- Nationals vs Dodgers moneyline: Nationals +186, Dodgers -225
- Nationals vs Dodgers over/under: 7.5 (-117o / -104u)
- Nationals vs Dodgers spread: Dodgers -1.5 (-100 ), Nationals +1.5 (-118)
Nationals vs Dodgers Probable Pitchers
| Cade Cavalli | Stat | Tyler Glasnow |
|---|---|---|
| 12-5 | W-L | 4-0 |
| 3.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 3.12 / 3.85 | ERA / xERA | 2.79 / 2.44 |
| 3.38 / 3.22 | FIP / xFIP | 2.77 / 2.79 |
| 20.5 | K-BB% | 25 |
| 48.9 | GB% | 46.6 |
| .310 | BABIP | .207 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 98 | Location+ | 98 |
Nationals vs Dodgers MLB Betting Preview
Nationals vs Dodgers Pick, Betting Analysis
Cade Cavalli is the second young 2026 breakout arm being backed today. No, we’re not siding with the Nationals in this game, but we are looking for Cavalli to pitch well.
Striking out 44 of his last 114 batters faced with at least eight in five straight starts, Cavalli has driven his strikeout rate up to 27.7% on the season (20.5 K-BB%). He has a 15.5 SwStr% during this stretch.
On the season, he is striking out RHBs 29.8% of the time and LHBs a little less often (26.8%).
He did leave his last game after just 16 batters and four innings (and still struck out eight) because of a calf issue, but has checked out fine during the week, going through his normal routine between starts.
A fair assumption, I believe, is 22 batters faced. He did not fall below that number in any of his previous seven starts.
Projecting Shohei Ohtani to play, that would be 13 RHBs and 9 LHBs via BARTOLO, only averaging a 20.3 K% through the first 22 batters to face Cavalli.
That’s not a lot, nor does he get any bump at all from the park, umpire, and weather situation, but this is a number Cavalli has hit in 13 of his last 20 starts, the Dodgers are slumping with their projected lineup averaging an 82 wRC+ over the last month, and Ohtani may not even play.
The projected defense behind Cavalli has accumulated 4 FRV, but a bullpen with the fourth-worst estimators in the league over the last month (4.94 FIP, 4.56 xFIP, 4.14 SIERA) is likely the largest obstacle to part of our goal here. BARTOLO ranks them 28th as well.
After finishing April, the Dodgers generally freeze their best pitchers before thawing them out for the stretch run. Since Glasnow’s thawing, he’s struck out 13 of 44 batters, allowing four runs in 12 innings with one walk.
He has a 25 K-BB%, while allowing a 37.9 HardHit% in nine starts this season.
For reasons beyond the scope of this article, pitch modeling has been merely average to slightly above (4.04 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+), but he only otherwise has one estimator reaching three (3.17 dERA).
The Washington lineup has James Wood back in the fold, but even with his 162 wRC+ against RHP, Saturday’s projected lineup averages just an 86 wRC+ on the road, 94 vs RHP and 85 over the last 30 days. It’s been a long season for a young team that has shown some punch at times, but seems to be wearing down.
The projected Dodger defense is at 2 FRV, combining for 6 FRV between the two teams.
The Dodger bullpen has the ninth-best estimators in the league over the last 30 days (3.54 FIP, 4.27 xFIP, 3.63 SIERA), but is BARTOLO’s third-ranked unit.
Dodger Stadium is a slightly positive run environment (+2%) with weather expected to be neutral, but a pitcher-friendly umpire (Rob Drake -2.9%) scheduled behind the plate. We could have a slightly negative environment on Saturday, but let’s call it neutral for our purposes.
Even with Ohtani projected in Saturday's lineup, I’m still falling short of the 8-run total being offered and have seen Action Labs track a reverse line move on this number already.
We just may have to say our prayers for a few innings once Cavalli exits.
Picks: Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+118, 0.5u | Bet to 100), Under 8 (-115, 0.58u | Bet through 8)
