It's Week 1 of the college football season, but Baseball rests for no one.
Check out our MLB Best Bets Today, including picks for Giants vs Mets, Angels vs Pirates, and Athletics vs Mariners on Saturday, September 5.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Giants vs Mets Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the over in this game.
Per BARTOLO — my new PRO baseball betting tool giving PRO subscribers access to all the live data I use to project games every day — spits out a projected total of 8.77 runs for Giants-Mets.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, check out BARTOLO here.
But here's a sneak peek of what BARTOLO looks like for Giants-Mets:
Related Articles
Pick: Over 8.5 (+100 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Angels vs Pirates Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Yusei Kikuchi has been blasted for seven runs over 12 innings since returning from an elongated IL stay.
He has struck out 10 of 50 batters with just two walks, but also allowed five barrels with a 54.1 HardHit%.
On the season (just nine starts), his underlying numbers aren’t as bad as his 5.65 ERA (.331 BABIP), but still around four and a half.
The projected Pittsburgh lineup against this left-hander averages a 128 wRC+ at home this season with only Nick York (93) below average. They also average a 105 wRC+ against LHP and 102 wRC+ over the last month.
The defense behind Kikuchi projects to be nearly average (-2 FRV) and while the bullpen only projects 17th via BARTOLO, they do have the 2nd best estimators in the league over the last 30 days.
In a breakout season, Braxton Ashcraft is wielding a 20 K-BB%, while allowing just 6.2% Barrels/BBE. He did have some issues with LHBs, but now has them below a .320 wOBA and xwOBA on the season and just a .288 wOBA over his last four starts. That’s a weakness in a weak LAA lineup to begin with anyway.
In fact, the projected Angels’ lineup does not reach a 90 average wRC+ either on the road, against RHP or over the last 30 days. In fact, among BARTOLO’s projected nine, only one batter projected to bat lower than fourth even reaches a 90 wRC+ in any three of those categories (Oswald Peraza 98 wRC+ on the road).
The Pittsburgh projected defense is just a bit worse than the Angels (-8 FRV), while the bullpen owns the 7th best estimators in the league for the preceding month.
We’re going to scrap the bullpens here because I believe Ashcraft is the big edge here, as I have him more than a run superior to Kikuchi, along with the Pittsburgh offense owning a near 20 point wRC+ edge in this spot.
When we also add in smaller edges like home field and a projected 7 BRR (Base Running Runs) advantage, I have the Pirates somewhere around 71% to prevail through the first five innings.
Pick: Pirates F5 ML (-215 or Better)
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Tony Sartori's Athletics vs Mariners Best Bet
By Tony Sartori
Left-hander Jeffrey Springs takes the mound for the Athletics, and he should serve as a good fade candidate. Through 25 starts this year, Springs is 3-13 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor. Entering this matchup, Springs ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, and barrel rate.
If anyone on the Seattle Mariners is to take advantage of this matchup, it is likely to be Julio Rodriguez. His analytics are far better than his surface-level stats, considering that he boasts a .265 xBA, .447 xSLG, and .338 xwOBA.
In 17 plate appearances against Springs, Rodriguez possesses a .588 slugging percentage and .581 xSLG.
Pick: Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-150 or Better)
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