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MLB Odds & Picks for Yankees vs. Mariners: Value Lies on Over/Under

MLB Odds & Picks for Yankees vs. Mariners: Value Lies on Over/Under article feature image
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Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole.

  • The Mariners host the Yankees in Tuesday's MLB showdown.
  • New York, which lost Matt Carpenter to a broken foot in Monday's meeting, are a slight -130 moneyline favorite.
  • Charlie DiSturco breaks down the matchup below and explains why he has found value in the betting total.

Yankees vs. Mariners Odds

Yankees Odds -130
Mariners Odds +105
Over/Under 7
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Six days ago, Luis Castillo made his Seattle Mariners debut against Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees in a game that was over in the first inning.

The Mariners jumped all over Cole in the Bronx, tagging him for six first-inning runs in a 7-3 win. The Yankees would lose their second of what became a five-game losing streak, which was snapped in Monday’s game.

Castillo and Cole square off again Tuesday, this time in Seattle. So, will offense reign supreme again or will a rubber match ensue in Castillo’s home debut?

New York Yankees

Take away Cole’s implosion against Seattle and the right-hander threw five shutout innings, giving up just two hits.

Cole’s biggest issue all season long has been his barrel rate. He ranks in the bottom third of all pitchers in barrels (8.4%), which burned him against Seattle, as he gave up three home runs.

Aside from that, Cole is elite in every other metric. Opponents have just a .210 xBA against the right-hander, and his strikeout rate is north of 30 percent. Cole doesn’t walk many batters, either, and his advanced metrics actually show that the ace has underperformed this season.

Cole’s xFIP is all the way down at 2.71, and his xERA is 3.10.  Yet, the 31-year-old has a 3.56 ERA across 131 1/3 innings in 2022.

I would take Cole’s last start against Seattle and take it with a grain of salt. His numbers are still impressive and we shouldn’t see the same outcome here.

The Yankees’ offense has remained impressive despite their pitching struggles. Over the last 14 days, they are sixth in wRC+ and wOBA and third in isolated power.

It’s important to monitor the status of Anthony Rizzo, who is day to day with a back injury. Matt Carpenter is the recent Yankee to suffer an injury, too, fracturing his foot on a foul ball in the series opener.

Seattle Mariners

Castillo continues to have the Yankees number in 2022, accruing back-to-back quality starts over the last month.

The first came as a member of the Cincinnati Reds, where he held the Yankees to just one run on two hits across seven strong. Then, six days ago, he threw 6 2/3 of three-run ball.

Castillo has been a revelation in 2022 and the Mariners paid a hefty price to acquire the right-hander. His ERA is below 3.00 for the first time in his career, and advanced metrics don’t imply any regression is coming.

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His strikeout rate has jumped over two percent from a season ago, plus his walks and xBA are down. Castillo’s numbers are dominant outside of Great American Ballpark, yet another positive with him being shipped out to Seattle.

The 29-year-old has a 2.36 ERA on the road this season. He will make his Mariners home debut and should continue his success against the Yankees.

As for Seattle’s offense, injuries have hurt the team. Jesse Winker left Monday with back spasms and is day to day. Julio Rodriguez and Dylan Moore remain on the injured list, though manager Scott Servais said the two could return for Wednesday’s series finale.

Over the last 14 days, the Mariners have been slightly below average in most offensive metrics. They’re 19th in wRC+ and 26th in wOBA, though they are sixth in walk rate.

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Yankees-Mariners Pick

I wrote the last preview when Castillo and Cole squared off and took the under. Aside from the first-inning meltdown, the game went as I expected with both pitchers in complete control.

I’m going back to the well in this spot and backing the total stay under the number. The injuries are piling up for both teams and with the Mariners’ recent offensive woes, I think Cole bounces back in dominant fashion.

I mentioned Seattle has been extremely disciplined at the plate, but that shouldn’t be an issue against Cole. He doesn’t walk batters and we saw what he’s capable of after that implosion of a first inning.

Tack on the fact that both bullpens’ high-leverage arms should be available, and I think this is the perfect spot for an under. I know there’s a slight familiarity with the Yankees seeing Castillo for a third time over the last month, but he’s had their number and should be no different.

Back the under in what should be a rubber match.

Pick: Total Under 7 Runs (-120)

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