Yankees vs Mets Odds, Picks, Prediction | MLB Betting Guide
Pictured: Giancarlo Stanton. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
- The Mets host the Yankees in what looks like an elite pitching matchup.
- Gerrit Cole takes the mound for the Yankees and Justin Verlander starts for the Mets, but Mike Ianniello is expecting plenty of runs to score.
- Ianniello, despite the pitching matchup, is backing the over and details his Yankees vs. Mets best bet below.
Yankees vs. Mets Odds
Well, the first Subway Series meeting this season certainly provided a show. The teams traded leads before the Yankees edged out a 7-6 thriller in Queens on Tuesday night.
However, neither team is where it wants to be in the standings. It has been an especially disappointing season for the Mets, as they are below .500 and in fourth place in the NL East.
Both teams are without their best hitter, unfortunately, but will have their ace on the mound Wednesday night. So which New York team has the advantage? Here is my best bet for Yankees vs. Mets.
It’s hard to believe Gerrit Cole hasn't won a Cy Young Award. He's finished in the top five in voting five times but has yet to win. Cole has finished with an ERA of 3.50 or less in five straight seasons and is well on his way to a sixth.
The Yankees' ace is 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA and continues to possess one of the game’s elite fastballs. However, his slider and curveball haven't been as dominant as in the past. In fact, there are a few things about Cole that have looked a bit off.
Cole’s 4.01 xERA is the second-worst of his career. He has always been elite at missing bats, but his 25.8% strikeout rate this season is significantly down from the 32.4% mark he posted last year and doesn’t even rank in the top third of the league.
The Yankees’ offense has been up and down throughout the first few months and ranks just 23rd in wOBA. Then, last week they were dealt a blow with Aaron Judge landing on the Injured List. However, New York proved Tuesday it can score without Judge, as both Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu homered and Anthony Volpe also had a big game.
It hasn’t been the start the Mets expected when they signed three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander over the offseason. He began the year on the IL and has made just seven starts. After posting a ridiculous 1.75 ERA last season, he has managed just a 4.85 ERA to begin his Mets tenure.
Home runs have plagued Verlander this season. He has allowed seven home runs in seven games and his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are both in the bottom 25% of the league. Like Cole, his strikeout rate is WAY down. He is missing bats at just a 19.9% clip after posting a 27.8% mark last season.
Verlander isn't missing bats, and when balls are put into play, it's often been hard contact. Verlander’s fastball has been crushed to a .378 xwOBA. His walk rate is up and it just seems like everything is going wrong.
The Mets' offense has also been below average and is without Pete Alonso. Despite Tuesday's loss, the Mets put up six runs and have some other pieces playing well, namely Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez.
Yankees vs. Mets Betting Pick
If I told you this was a matchup between two guys who rank in the bottom half of the league in hard-hit percentage, average exit velocity, barrel rate and whiff rate, you'd probably be stunned to see Cole vs. Verlander on the lineup card.
The 40-year-old Verlander is having one of his worst seasons. His strikeout rate is the lowest of his career and he is either walking batters or giving up hard contact.
As for Cole, each month has been progressively worse. He finished April with a 3.28 xFIP, posted a 4.33 xFIP in May and has a 5.06 xFIP through two June starts.
Over the past four starts for these two pitchers, they have allowed 25 combined runs.
Tuesday, I gave out the under between these teams and it went over in four innings. So naturally, this game is destined to stay under since I’m now recommending the over.
Yes, Judge and Alonso are out, but I think each offense received a much-needed confidence boost Tuesday.
Look for the offenses to carry that momentum against pitchers who are a bit overvalued in their current form and are being priced based on their elite reputations.
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