Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi Odds
| Albazi Odds | +275 |
| Horiguchi Odds | -345 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-260/+195) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 113 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 113 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi prediction for UFC Vegas 113 on Saturday, February 7, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Former UFC flyweight title challenger Kyoji Horiguchi was impressive in his return to the promotion last November, dropping Tagir Ulanbekov twice before finishing him with a submission as he makes a late-career push for another title shot. In his way, this time is Amir Albazi, who was once considered a future champion but has struggled to stay active, fighting just once in the past 30+ months. Can Albazi rebound from his first UFC loss, or is Horiguchi destined for another shot at the title?
Here's my Albazi vs Horiguchi pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Albazi | Horiguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-2 | 35-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:25 | 13:53 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 63" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/27/1993 | 10/12/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.72 | 3.64 |
| SS Accuracy | 34% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.71 | 2.26 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.39 | 1.80 |
| TD Acc | 32% | 42% |
| TD Def | 50% | 54% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.1 |
One of the things that immediately jumped out to me about this fight is that Horiguchi really isn't that much older than Albazi.
Long-time MMA fans remember Horiguchi's original UFC run, which began 13 years ago in 2013 and peaked with a title fight against flyweight GOAT Demetrius Johnson, who finished Horiguchi at the 4:59 mark of the fifth and final round. Horiguchi went on to pick up two more UFC wins before taking his talents back to Japan and fighting for RIZIN and eventually Bellator before returning to the UFC last fall.
Albazi made his UFC debut in 2020, picked up five straight wins, and then lost a one-sided decision to Brandon Moreno in his last fight. However, he's had more cancelled fights (eight) than actual UFC bouts (six) in that time.
While they weren't all his fault, Albazi has undergone heart surgery and a serious neck injury, among other ailments. Despite having fewer than half of the professional fights as Horiguchi, "The Prince" is only three years younger.
All of which is to say this isn't exactly a young up-and-comer challenging a veteran still hanging on to his spot, despite how it might feel to those of us who remember Horiguchi fighting for a UFC title over a decade ago.
Nor was Horiguchi fighting lower-level competition in his time away from the UFC. His opponents in RIZIN and Bellator include notable names like Manel Kape, Kai Asakaura, Sergio Pettis, and Patchy Mix — all fighters who held major organization titles at some point.
His return to the UFC was vintage Horiguchi. His power was on full display, dropping Ulanbekov twice. So was his underrated grappling, with Horiguchi being taken down just once and scrambling back to his feet shortly after without taking a single ground strike.
The defensive grappling will be the key for Horiguchi here, as Albazi is statistically one of the worst strikers in the UFC. Albazi lands at just a 34% overall clip with under three significant strikes per minute, despite spending a large chunk of his fights in dominant grappling positions.
When he's unable to land and hold takedowns, it's usually a bad sign for Albazi. He landed just one takedown and less than ten seconds of ground control time in the loss to Moreno, and just one in a split decision win against Kai Kara-France that almost certainly should've gone the other way.
Horiguchi's takedown defense numbers are heavily swayed by the 14 he gave up to Demetrius Johnson, which aren't especially relevant at this point. He was dominated on the ground against Patchy Mix more recently in Bellator, though, which at least gives a blueprint for how Albazi could get this one done.
Albazi vs Horiguchi Pick, Prediction
Given the stylistic angles and the long layoff for Albazi, Kyoji Horiguchi absolutely should win this fight.
However, I'm struck by the feeling that this is both a buy low spot on Albazi — he was only +145 against Moreno — and a sell high spot on Horiguchi, who was an underdog against a lesser grappler in Ulanbekov.
Plus, this fight is heavily favored to go all 15 minutes, so Albazi claiming one of the rounds via ground control would be enough to swing the +3.5 point spread in his favor. That line is a reasonable -110 via DraftKings, so I'll be betting to win half a unit on that line. Additionally, I'm throwing a quarter unit on Albazi's moneyline, which is as high as +300 via BetMGM.
Billy's Pick: Albazi +3.5 Points -110 (0.55 units, DraftKings) | Albazi +300 (0.25u, BetMGM)
