Aspen Ladd vs. Raquel Pennington Odds, UFC 273 Pick & Prediction: Is the Value on the Underdog? (Saturday, April 9)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured (L-R): UFC opponents Aspen Ladd and Raquel Pennington.
- Aspen Ladd and Raquel Pennington will meet in the Octagon in a matchup of two Top-10 Women's Bantamweights at UFC 273.
- Pennington enters the fights as a -190 favorite, but Sean Zerillo thinks the fight could be closer than the odds suggest.
- He previews how to bet this matchup and why there's value on the underdog.
Aspen Ladd vs. Raquel Pennington Odds
Aspen Ladd, the No. 4 ranked women's bantamweight contender, will face the No. 7 ranked contender, Raquel Pennington Saturday night at UFC 273.
Pennington enters this fight on short notice after Ladd's original opponent, Irene Aldana, had to bow out due to an injury. Will the last minute replacement be a positive for the underdog?
Below, I’ll provide my analysis and picks for Saturday’s matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Ladd | Pennington | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-2 | 13-9 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:18 | 14:03 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 136 lbs. | 134.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/1/95 | 9/5/88 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.64 | 3.66 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.94 | 3.21 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.46 | 1.07 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 28% |
| TD Def | 57% | 64% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.7 |
I have significant concerns about betting on either fighter in this matchup.
Pennington is the superior striker, but she has been taken down at least once in each of her past three fights (all wins), and before that, she spent half a fight (7:15) pushed against the cage by Holly Holm.
Ladd is a big problem for her opponents once she gains top position. She offers a ton of pressure and ferocious ground and pound.
But her most recent outing in a Main Event against Norma Dumont was beyond concerning. Ladd refused to engage for the first three rounds and then looked like a clear favorite once she woke up.
I'm not sure that Ladd can keep Pennington down for extended periods. Even if she does win a decision, I expect a close/split type situation, where judges weigh Ladd's takedowns against Pennington's striking in different ways.
Ladd vs. Pennington Pick
Ladd's moneyline (projected +145, listed +155) is intriguing, in addition to her knockout prop (projected +717, listed +800) and inside the distance number (projected +513, listed +600).
I'll allocate my bet between the moneyline and the finish prop, but it's not a particularly confident underdog play.
The Pick: Aspen Ladd (+160, 0.4u) | Ladd wins Inside the Distance (+600, 0.1u)
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