Bo Nickal vs. Rodolfo Vieira Odds
| Nickal Odds | -225 |
| Vieira Odds | +185 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-154/+120) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 322 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 322 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Bo Nickal vs. Rodolfo Vieira prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The shine on Bo Nickal wore off as soon as he faced a ranked UFC fighter. The good news for Nickal is that he is squarely in his athletic prime at just 29 years of age, and at any point, the light could come on, as there is little doubt improvements will be made each time we see him from this point forward. The questions heading into UFC 322 surrounding Nickal remain, and Rodolfo Vieira is unquestionably the second-best fighter Nickal has faced in his young career. With that said, we don’t necessarily need to have all the answers to win the wager I am attacking in this matchup.
Here's my Nickal vs. Vieira pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Nickal | Vieira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 | 11-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:08 | 9:43 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 73" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/14/1996 | 9/25/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.36 | 3.77 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.11 | 4.12 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.34 | 3.09 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 23% |
| TD Def | 100% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 2.9 | 1.0 |
Nickal was exposed by Reinier de Ridder, but by all accounts, it has caused the standout wrestler to rid himself of the overconfidence he entered MMA with and shifted his focus to causing damage instead of control. While it’s nice to hear of a mental reset for a fighter with such potential, the specific matchup with Rodolfo Vieira will cause Nickal to be very mindful of not making an error when this fight ultimately hits the mat.
Vieira, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist, is clearly a danger for any fighter who willingly opts to bring him to the ground. Nickal will oblige Vieira by doing so, as I have not been impressed with Vieira’s takedown defense against any capable wrestler.
It was also a bad look for Vieira losing in the manner he did to Andre Petroski, but oddly enough, it made me even more confident in my position on this fight.
Nickal may try to see how things feel in the stand-up, but I expect Vieira to be the more crisp striker between the two men. I see very little chance that the underdog Vieira can drag Nickal to the mat, but there is a high likelihood that Nickal is the only one who decides he feels most comfortable in top control.
Nickal is savvy enough on the ground to avoid the submission, and Vieira obviously has skills to keep his neck safe. If Vieira is going to prove to be a live underdog, he needs to get back on his feet with urgency to make this a kickboxing match.
The improvements Vieira has made in his striking are commendable and he is simply ahead of where Nickal is currently, in my estimation. However, in the circumstance we do see extended periods of a kickboxing match, it would be a low-level affair with neither man conjuring up much power in their punches.
Vieira’s cardio is a concern, and if Nickal mat returns him with constant pressure, openings could present themselves for a dominant position. However, despite what Nickal was quoted as saying, preserving a win and moving his career back towards the optimism column is priority number one. Building his resume with a victory is more important than trying to get a flashy finish just to regain some of the hype he lost along the way.
No matter which path either man takes in their approach, I see very little chance of a finish in the first two rounds. In fact, fatigue is the only way in which I see Vieira losing inside the distance. Again, Nickal has no choice but to prioritize control and safety on the mat, knowing Vieira has the ability to threaten with a submission in an instant.
Nickal vs. Vieira Pick, Prediction
The virtual staring contest we witnessed between Nickal and Paul Craig exactly one year ago still weighs on my mind, and there definitely could be prolonged periods similar in nature. In that scenario, I’d feel even more confident that Vieira’s stamina can hold up for all 15 minutes.
Simply put, neither fighter has the power to put the other out and both are very well-versed in submission defense. Nickal won’t be bailed out like he was against Cody Brundage, which is the only finish victory on Nickal’s record over a UFC-level combatant. Nickal just isn't on the level of the only man to beat Vieira inside of 15 minutes, Anthony Hernandez, thus the finish equity on the favorite's side isn't worth the price, either.
I’ll avoid the back-half of round three by playing over 2.5 rounds here, instead of fight goes the distance, just in case Vieira’s cardio starts to wane down the stretch.
You can easily tail my bet and find the best line with Playbook: just click this link to instantly add it to your bet slip.
John's Pick: Over 2.5 rounds -150 (Caesars)
