Frankie Edgar vs. Marlon Vera UFC 268 Betting Odds & Pick: Back Bantamweight Veteran

Frankie Edgar vs. Marlon Vera UFC 268 Betting Odds & Pick: Back Bantamweight Veteran article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Frankie Edgar.

  • Frankie Edgar looks to get back in the win column at UFC 268 against Marlon "Chito" Vera.
  • Edgar has lost three of his last four fights, while Vera notched a win in July.
  • Sean Zerillo breaks down the fight and delivers his betting pick below.

Frankie Edgar vs. Marlon Vera Odds

Edgar Odds
+125
Vera Odds
-150
Over/Under
2.5 (-185 / +150)
Venue
Madison Square Garden
Time
Approx. 11 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN PPV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute UFC odds here.

UFC veteran and 40-year-old former champion, Frankie Edgar, will face off with Marlon Vera on the UFC 268 main card. Edgar (1-3 in his past four) will attempt to bounce back from a brutal knockout loss in February to Cory Sandhagen.

Edgar faces tough competition against Vera, who has eight finishes at bantamweight, tied for the most in the division with TJ Dillashaw.

Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Edgar Vera
Record 23-9 17-17
Avg. Fight Time 16:29 11:02
Height 5’6″ 5’8″
Weight (pounds) 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach (inches) 68″ 70″
Stance Orthodox Switch
Date of birth 10/16/1981 12/2/1992
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.70 3.91
SS Accuracy 39% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.71 4.08
SS Defense 66% 51%
Take Down Avg 2.28 0.88
TD Acc 31% 42%
TD Def 65% 69%
Submission Avg 0.3 1.3

“Chito” Vera typically starts slow — losing the first round on at least one scorecard in each of his past five bouts (the other, his finish against Sean O’Malley) — before picking up the pace.

Falling behind could be a recipe for disaster against Edgar, who has competed for belts at Lightweight and Featherweight and boasts some of the best cardio in UFC history.

Unfortunately, Edgar is on the wrong side of the age curve (recently turned 40) in a smaller weight class. His legendary durability (all three career knockout losses in his past six fights) appears to be fading.

Conversely, Vera looks like one of the most durable fighters on the roster, and he has a very violent style.

Edgar is the more efficient boxer (+0.99 to -0.17 strike differential; -11% accuracy; +15% defense) and the superior grappler (2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes, 31% accuracy). Vera can lose minutes on pure output or get stuck on the bottom (69% takedown defense) and cede control time, which has been an issue in the past.

Edgar can win this fight through volume and control, but all of the finishing equity lies with Vera — Edgar seemingly needs takedowns to see his hand raised.

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Edgar vs. Vera Pick

There’s value on the fight to go the distance (projected -177, listed -150) or the Over 2.5 rounds. However, I prefer the value on Edgar’s odds to win by decision (projected +196, listed +250).

I’m not interested in taking a significant position on a 40-year-old bantamweight. Nor am I interested in doubling down on his durability by betting the distance prop or the over; we’ll keep our wagering on this fight small.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar wins by Decision (+250)

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