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UFC Fight Night Odds, Pick, Prediction: Gabriel Benitez vs. David Onama Betting Preview (February 19)

UFC Fight Night Odds, Pick, Prediction: Gabriel Benitez vs. David Onama Betting Preview (February 19) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter David Onama.

  • Gabriel Benitez vs. David Onama is a prelim fight worth keeping an eye on at Saturday's UFC event.
  • Onama is favored, but the best way to target this fight is looking at the round total.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of the fight as well as how to attack the odds.

Gabriel Benitez vs. David Onama Odds

Benitez Odds +130
Onama Odds -150
Over/Under 2.5 (+120 / -150)
Venue UFC APEX
Time Approx. 6:30 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN+
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

The featured prelim for UFC Vegas 48 pits seasoned Featherweight Gabriel “Moggly” Benitez against up-and-coming prospect David Onama.

Onama is coming off of an impressive UFC debut — albeit in a loss — and will have a distinct 3-inch height advantage compared to Benitez. The veteran will have his work cut out for him against the newcomer after a tough loss against Billy Quarantillo where he was dominated from start to finish.

This fight will answer questions about Benitez’s durability and whether he has enough in the tank to compete at the highest level. Below I breakdown the featured prelim for UFC Vegas 48.

Tale of the Tape

Benitez Onama
Record 22-10 8-1
Avg. Fight Time 9:20 15:00
Height 5’8″ 5’11”
Weight (pounds) 148 lbs. 144.5 lbs.
Reach (inches) 71″ 74″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Date of birth 6/15/88 6/7/94
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.35 6.00
SS Accuracy 39% 58%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.80 5.80
SS Defense 65% 44%
Take Down Avg 0.15 0.0
TD Acc 50% 0%
TD Def 56% 42%
Submission Avg 1.2 0.0

Having lost three of his past four fights, Benitez needs to right the ship in a hurry if he is going to continue his UFC career. His lone win in that span is against Justin Jaynes, who is no longer on the UFC roster.

Benitez has impressive cardio, which he used to his advantage against Quarantillo. Despite clearly losing the first two rounds, Benitez continued to throw in Round 3 and knock down his opponent. Still, Benitez was stopped later in that round and the losing skid continued.

This weekend’s matchup doesn’t get much better either.

Onama has never been finished in his professional or amateur career and showed off some impressive stand-up. His 74-inch reach (3-inch advantage) should be plenty helpful to keep his distance from Benitez. And Onama will have the higher volume in the striking if he uses that reach properly.

However, Benitez should be targeting low calf kicks as his preferred weapon on the feet: 15-20 low leg kicks will put Onama on the back leg where Benitez can thrive with forward pressure.

Furthermore, a takedown attempt would be wise from the underdog. Onama was pulled to the ground eight times and controlled for nine minutes in his UFC debut. Benitez profiles as the more dangerous submission grappler.

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Benitez vs. Onama Pick

The lingering unknown in this fight is, whether or not Benitez is done. It could look like that if Onama wins this fight as the favorite.

It is worth mentioning that Onama was a +400 underdog in his first fight against Mason Jones. Onama well outperformed that number, but it is rare to see any fighter lose and go from that big of an underdog to a favorite like this.

This is the make-or-break moment for Benitez. If he loses this fight he likely will get his walking papers. I am expecting him to come out with calculated low leg kicks and takedown attempts. His size disadvantage will be crippling if he does not do this.

From a betting perspective, it is difficult to back Onama at his current moneyline price. Oddsmakers are expecting Onama to win this fight inside the distance (+100, 50% implied). There is very little value here especially having only seen one fight from him in his UFC career.

From a value perspective, this fight to go to a decision is +168 on FanDuel. This is an interesting value spot as Benitez was only stopped by Quarantillo because of excessive bleeding.

This fight prop is worth a bet down to +140. Moreover, while it is always difficult to predict what judges are thinking during fights, Onama is +550 to win by a decision on PointsBet.

The odds on this are too high and should only be bet down to +480. In a fight like this, the volume vs. damage discussion will be in full bloom. The method of victory prop is only worth a half unit sprinkle.

The Pick: Fight goes to decision +168 (FanDuel) | Onama wins by decision +550 .5u (PointsBet)

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