Johnny Walker vs. Mingyang Zhang Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Shanghai (Saturday, August 23)

Johnny Walker vs. Mingyang Zhang Odds

Check out the Johnny Walker vs. Mingyang Zhang prediction for UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 23, with my betting preview and breakdown.

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Shanghai Indoor Arena for a 12-fight card, featuring a Light Heavyweight showdown between rising No. 14 contender Mingyang Zhang and No. 13-ranked Johnny Walker.

Zhang, 27, owns a 4-0 promotional record, including his contract-earning performance over Tuco Tokkos in the Road to UFC finals; each of those four wins has come in the opening round, giving Zhang a 100% first-round finish rate across 19 career victories.

Walker owns an 8-6 (1 NC) promotional record, but enters Saturday's bout off consecutive knockout losses against Magomed Ankalaev and Volkan Oezdemir. Walker has finished 16 of 21 career wins —including six of his eight UFC victories— and combined, these two Light Heavyweights have seen just five of their 56 career fights (9%) go to decision.

As a result, the Under 1.5 and ends inside the distance props are about as heavily juiced as I can remember for a five-round main event, sitting north of -350 (77.7% implied) to the Under 1.5 rounds, and -1600 (94% implied) to end inside the distance. Which fighter is likelier to find the finish?

Here's my Walker vs. Zhang pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Walker is the taller and longer fighter (4" taller, 7" reach advantage) and likely the better minute winner —with superior cardio— in any extended fight. As a result, while I'm hesitant to bet Walker pre-fight, given his potentially compromised chin, I'm enthusiastic about betting him live after the first round, as Zhang's potency should begin to wane.

Walker previously had a five round main event with Thiago Santos, that was also heavily juiced (closed as high as -850) to end inside the distance; however, Walker came out with a different gameplan in that fight after moving his camp to SBG Ireland, and attempted a safe, minimal chaos, outside point fighting style in that matchup; dropping a tepid 48-47 decision.

Walker thrives when he can create chaos, and Zhang will walk right into the fire to meet him, hence the heavily juiced finish props for this fight.

Zhang is six years younger, more durable, and potentially the more powerful fighter of the pair too, but both men are glass cannons.

Zhang has five regional losses via finish, three by knockout and two by submission, which indicates that he's highly likely to get finished by UFC-calibre competition as he rises the rankings. Moreover, he's never won a bout past the five-minute mark —indicating likely severe cardio concerns— and his defensive wrestling and grappling are potentially porous.

Zhang is a mean, powerful pressure boxer who is willing to take a punch to land one —he walked right into the pocket and was wobbled by Brendon Ribeiro in his debut, before securing the finish himself. He's the better boxer than Walker, who will look to land more dynamic techniques, including a flying knee, as the distance closes between the pair.

Walker would be better served by sticking to an outside fighting style in this matchup, where he can stay out of Zhang's punching range, use his superior kicks to frustrate his opponent, and attempt to clinch or mix in takedowns to counteract the forward pressure.

Walker doesn't wrestle often (0.2 attempts per five minutes at distance; 9 of 18 career), but he has shown surprising acumen when forced to grapple, including his impressive submission win over Ion Cutelaba.

Perhaps an expanded skillset for Walker shouldn't come as such a surprise, considering his brother and longtime training partner, Valter, is a grappling specialist who has finished three consecutive UFC wins via heel hook. And, aside from sticking to an outside striking game plan, the best place for Walker to hide his glass chin is to get the fight to the mat.

Walker vs. Zhang Pick, Prediction

I project Mingyang Zhang as a -346 favorite, and I don't show value on either side of the moneyline at current odds, with the favorite lined at -350 or higher everywhere.

Moreover, I don't project value on the totals or distance prop, projecting the fight to end by finish nearly 95% of the time (-1771 implied odds).

That said, I do project a slight edge on Zhang by KO/TKO (projected -268, listed -240) depending upon the book, and would consider Zhang by KO/TKO Round in Round 1 (+104) if you're betting the favorite. If that ticket cashes, it will only enhance Zhang's potential fade equity in the future, against more durable opposition.

However, I'd personally prefer a small poke on Walker by submission (+1015), listed +1200 pre-fight, while waiting for a live entry on his moneyline after the opening round.

Sean's Pick: Johnny Walker wins by Submission | Walker Live after Round 1