Josh Van vs. Tatsuro Taira Odds
| Van Odds | +136 |
| Taira Odds | -162 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-125/-105) |
| Location | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 328 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 328 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Josh Van vs. Tatsuro Taira prediction for UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
he co-headliner for UFC 328 features a men's flyweight title fight between Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira. Van, who is the current champion, is coming off an ignominious injury-TKO win over Alexandre Pantoja last December. Van has caught a lot of grief since his weird title win, but he'll have a chance to silence some of his doubters this Saturday when he takes on Taira.
Van might be the promotion's first Asian-born men's champion, but Taira has been pegged as Japan's best chance for championship gold for some time now. Either way, this is a huge fight for Asian MMA.
Here's my Van vs. Taira pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Van | Taira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-2 | 18-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:26 | 10:40 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/10/2001 | 1/27/2000 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 8.84 | 2.94 |
| SS Accuracy | 56% | 60% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.39 | 2.44 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.84 | 3.12 |
| TD Acc | 63% | 46% |
| TD Def | 81% | 45% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 1.6 |
Despite Van and Taira being talented and well-rounded enough to avoid having their styles lazily pigeon-holed, the striker vs. grappler dynamic is arguably fair for this fight.
Van, who holds the edge in the striking realm, is one of the most exciting boxing stylists under the UFC umbrella. A solid puncher who likes to counter in combination, Van does well when it comes to varying his shot selections to the body.
Van also wields some underrated kicks, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the sitting champ shelve some of those attacks, considering the looming takedown threats that are likely lying in wait.
Don't get me wrong: Van has solid scrambling and takedown defense and can work well off of whizzers. I'm just not sure how much Van will even humor a ground fight, given the undeniable skills of Taira.
Arguably the best back-taker at flyweight outside of Pantoja, Taira is as relentless as he is crafty. Not afraid to fail on his first takedown attempt, Taira is good about getting his opponents to the fence so that he can better chain his attacks.
Taira has also gotten better at playing off of level-changing threats, which, in turn, helps his striking on the feet. Taira possesses solid jabs and switch kicks off his lead side, and can also strike well to and from collar ties on occasion.
That said, Taira's head movement still seems to be lacking in the defense department – something that could be further exposed if Van can extend exchanges standing.
Van vs. Taira Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Japanese challenger, listing Taira -160 and Van +135 as of this writing.
Although it can sometimes feel slightly disrespectful to see a sitting champion set as the underdog, I believe that the betting spread above is more a reflection of the stylistic matchup at play. And with this fight being a competitive striker vs. grappler affair on paper, "pick a side and ride" prices seem both fair and expected regardless of who you favor.
Given the shown cardio and output that the Van brings to the table, I don't think I can talk anyone out of plus-money perspectives if they're feeling bullish on "The Fearless" to come through.
However, despite being attracted to Van's fighting style more, I suspect that his propensity to let fights come to him could be a more dangerous than usual tight rope to walk opposite someone like Taira. I also don't like the fact that Van was the injured fighter for whom the promotion pushed this fight back from its initial UFC 327 date for.
Couple that with the inherent back exposure that Van tends to give up in scrambles, and this could be a painfully long (or short) night for the current champ.
I think that round 2 will be Taira's "hot round" to get a finish, and that his submission props will be live and popular punts this weekend. I'll also be curious to see what Taira's total takedowns are set at since he's the favorite opposite a fighter who can give up takedowns in victory or defeat.
If Taira's money line is too rich for your parlay or straight play sensibilities, then I suggest taking a gander at Taira's alternate prop market (which currently is offering Taira to win in rounds 1, 2 or 3 at north of 2-1 odds).
As for me, I grabbed Taira's money line at -164 and would play it straight at anything south of -180.
Dan's Picks: Tatsuro Taira -160 (BetMGM)
